Dozens of Tesla Cybertruck Megacastings Spotted at Giga Texas Prove Tesla Means Business

The anticipation for the upcoming Tesla Cybertruck reached a new all-time high after the pictures of the truck's rear megacastings were shared on social media. Depending on whom you believe, the alien electric pickup truck is either about to storm out of the Giga Texas production line any minute now or another fake news, vaporware hyped by Elon Musk's mob to pump up the stock.

The truth is, of course, somewhere in between, although the general consensus is that Tesla aims to start trial production this summer. Elon Musk announced that a key handover event would be scheduled later this year, so we will see some production trucks in the wild at some point. The production estimates for 2023 are relatively small, with Tesla number-crunching veteran Troy Teslike pointing to a couple of hundred Cybertrucks. Enough for a nice Delivery Day, but too few to make a difference to delivery numbers.

There are serious hurdles to overcome, as Tesla aims for an unconventional vehicle in many ways. The truck's body uses a new production technique and materials unusual for the automotive industry. For instance, the Cybertruck's front and rear megacastings, although already tried on the Model Y, are the most massive yet, requiring the biggest die-casting machines ever built, IDRA's 9,000-ton Giga Presses. Tesla also wants to switch to a 48-volt low-voltage architecture and aims to reduce wiring by using several local controllers with fewer connections, as revealed during March 1 Investor Day.

Tesla installed the massive Giga Presses at Giga Texas late last year, and now it appears the Cybertruck's production line is complete. We can say that trial production could start any time now, although there aren't many signs to indicate this. Before Giga Berlin and Giga Texas started Model Y production in 2022, Tesla produced dozens of cars used for testing or crashed. No such thing has happened now, so we're still facing a long wait.

Still, at least the 9,000-ton Giga Presses appear to work as advertised. Drone pilot Joe Tegtmeyer shared Giga Texas imagery showing a pile of castings similar to Cybertruck's rear megacasting revealed in a December 2022 photo. There are at least 45 megacastings in the pictures, and they appeared fresh from the press, as they still have the overflows from the casting process. Since they were not processed further, we can say they will be discarded. This indicates that they were likely produced while Tesla calibrated the Giga Press machines.

Many other things must fall into place before the Cybertruck starts series production. The most important, and also the most sensitive, is the 4680-cell production. From the Model Y AWD certification documents, we've learned that the bigger cells have a lower energy density than the older 2170 cells. The production yields are also below expectations, and Tesla's partners are not confident they can deliver 4680 cells soon. Tesla bet everything on the 4680 cells and stopped investing in 2170 cells. The 2170-cell supply is overstretched as it is, which is one reason Canada got Model 3 and Model Y cars built at Giga Shanghai.