Photo: Munro Live via YouTube | Edited
Tesla bet everything on its new 4680 battery cells, but that might've been a mistake. Based on the certification documents for the Model Y AWD, the new cells have a lower energy density, putting a question mark on the Cybertruck's performance.
In 2020, Tesla announced that it would transition to using a bigger battery cell form factor. Instead of the regular 2170 cells, Tesla will develop 4680 cells. According to the slide shown during Battery Day, the 4680 cells would provide five times the energy and six times the power of 2170 cells, enabling a 16 percent range boost. The new cells would not only be bigger but would also use improved chemistry, with a silicone anode and no cobalt. Finally, they would be cheaper to manufacture thanks to a dry-battery-electrode (DBE) manufacturing process.
Still, two years down the road, Tesla could not deliver on any of these promises. At the end of last year, a teardown revealed that the 4680 cells did not have a silicone anode. More than that, they were bigger NMC811 cells, meaning they still use cobalt, and the DBE process was still causing Tesla headaches, hindering production. The teardown also revealed the energy density of the new cells was lower than that of Tesla's 2170 cells developed with Panasonic. A new report based on the Tesla Model Y Standard Range AWD certification documents confirms this is still the case today.
According to @TroyTeslike, the Model Y AWD EPA range tests reveal that the 4680 cells have 13 percent lower energy density compared to the 2170 cells used in the Model Y Long Range AWD. While the latter has 262 Wh/kg at the cell level, the 4680 cells only provide 229 Wh/kg. Thus, the standard-range Model Y features a 67-kWh battery pack instead of the 81-kWh of the Long Range model. Still, the 4680 structural pack weighs almost as much as the 2170 pack, at 648 lbs (294 kg) vs. 681 lbs (309 kg).
The lower-than-expected energy density puts the Cybertruck's performance in a bad light, considering the pickup truck relies on 4680 cells for production. Although the Cybertruck production line seems ready to roll, the 4680 cells could hinder production start. The 4680 cells' limited availability has already kept Tesla from launching the Cybertruck production earlier, as promised. Now, the limited run of the new cells can barely supply the Model Y SR production line. Tesla needs to ramp up battery cell production for the Cybertruck.
Even so, it's likely that Tesla could not offer a 400-mile (645-km) Cybertruck as people expected. The lower energy density and limited production mean the first Cybertruck trucks rolling off the production line will be lower range. This will not change anytime soon, especially as Panasonic recently delayed the 4680 cell production start. Panasonic said that it needs more time to improve battery performance. Assuming that Tesla is ahead of the Japanese company in the 4680-cell development, the Panasonic cell energy density could be even worse than 229 Wh/kg.
Costs will also be an issue, as Tesla still experiences many discarded cells. Many operations are still done manually at Tesla's Kato Road experimental production facility. The EV maker will likely need a second-generation cell to fulfill the 4680 promises. Rumor has it that the new battery production line at Giga Texas has already begun Gen-2 test production. Hopefully, Tesla will offer more information on Tuesday during the 2023 Shareholder Meeting.
Still, two years down the road, Tesla could not deliver on any of these promises. At the end of last year, a teardown revealed that the 4680 cells did not have a silicone anode. More than that, they were bigger NMC811 cells, meaning they still use cobalt, and the DBE process was still causing Tesla headaches, hindering production. The teardown also revealed the energy density of the new cells was lower than that of Tesla's 2170 cells developed with Panasonic. A new report based on the Tesla Model Y Standard Range AWD certification documents confirms this is still the case today.
According to @TroyTeslike, the Model Y AWD EPA range tests reveal that the 4680 cells have 13 percent lower energy density compared to the 2170 cells used in the Model Y Long Range AWD. While the latter has 262 Wh/kg at the cell level, the 4680 cells only provide 229 Wh/kg. Thus, the standard-range Model Y features a 67-kWh battery pack instead of the 81-kWh of the Long Range model. Still, the 4680 structural pack weighs almost as much as the 2170 pack, at 648 lbs (294 kg) vs. 681 lbs (309 kg).
The lower-than-expected energy density puts the Cybertruck's performance in a bad light, considering the pickup truck relies on 4680 cells for production. Although the Cybertruck production line seems ready to roll, the 4680 cells could hinder production start. The 4680 cells' limited availability has already kept Tesla from launching the Cybertruck production earlier, as promised. Now, the limited run of the new cells can barely supply the Model Y SR production line. Tesla needs to ramp up battery cell production for the Cybertruck.
Even so, it's likely that Tesla could not offer a 400-mile (645-km) Cybertruck as people expected. The lower energy density and limited production mean the first Cybertruck trucks rolling off the production line will be lower range. This will not change anytime soon, especially as Panasonic recently delayed the 4680 cell production start. Panasonic said that it needs more time to improve battery performance. Assuming that Tesla is ahead of the Japanese company in the 4680-cell development, the Panasonic cell energy density could be even worse than 229 Wh/kg.
Costs will also be an issue, as Tesla still experiences many discarded cells. Many operations are still done manually at Tesla's Kato Road experimental production facility. The EV maker will likely need a second-generation cell to fulfill the 4680 promises. Rumor has it that the new battery production line at Giga Texas has already begun Gen-2 test production. Hopefully, Tesla will offer more information on Tuesday during the 2023 Shareholder Meeting.
Based on my calculation using data from this file https://t.co/d2Jouy0tQn published by the EPA about Model Y range tests, the energy density of current 4680 cells is 13% less than 2170 cells. I think Cybertruck production will need a next-gen 4680 cell with higher energy density. pic.twitter.com/teDQil7eFM
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) May 13, 2023
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