Things To Look Out for at the 2023 NASCAR Ally 400 Event

From the time the teams arrived at Daytona International Speedway for Speedweeks, they had been tirelessly navigating the racing circuit for a staggering 17 consecutive weeks, including the exhilarating All-Star Race. That brief hiatus was indeed a welcome advantage. However, it also meant that it would be the sole break in the relentless schedule until the Phoenix race. From this weekend in Nashville onward, the Cup Series would embark on an uninterrupted streak of 20 consecutive weekends, charging toward the ultimate finish line. Yet, for specific drivers, the idea of a pause in the action was far from desirable. They had been riding a wave of remarkable momentum leading up to the break.

Kyle Busch, in particular, had been displaying exceptional form, securing five top-seven finishes in the past six weeks. Notably, he notched an impressive four consecutive finishes in the top tier and even clinched two back-to-back top-two finishes in his No. 8 Chevrolet. Martin Truex Jr., fresh off his Sonoma victory, also experienced a surge in performance, with five top-eight finishes in the previous six weeks. This remarkable stretch came after a relatively slow start to the season, where he managed just three such finishes in the first ten weeks. The momentum he generated propelled him to claim the coveted points lead as the break commenced.

Joey Logano, who had only secured three top-five finishes in the initial 14 weeks, found his stride just before the break, clinching two consecutive third-place finishes. It was a remarkable turnaround from his previous string of finishes, including 30th at Talladega, 31st at Dover, 18th at Darlington, and 21st at the Coca-Cola 600. Chris Buescher was another driver enjoying a notable upswing, achieving five top-10 finishes in the past seven weeks, with an impressive fourth-place run at Sonoma.

Michael McDowell also showcased his potential, securing a ninth-place finish at Gateway and an impressive seventh-place finish at Sonoma. The question loomed: How would the week off affect their hard-earned momentum? Would it interrupt their flow or provide an opportunity to regroup and emerge stronger than ever?

The ebb and flow of momentum have been a captivating storyline. Once possessing it, he then saw it slip through his fingers, and now he finds himself grappling to recapture it. Chastain's journey took him from the pinnacle of the points standings in early May to a modest sixth place entering Sonoma. While he managed to regain a couple of positions, securing a fourth-place spot during the off week, there was an undeniable sense that his spark had faded.

A pivotal moment unfolded during Chastain's fierce battle with Kyle Larson in Darlington last month when the two drivers clashed. The incident reached a boiling point, leading Rick Hendrick to express his discontent with Chastain's aggressive driving style, making his sentiments known during the post-race winners' press conference. Trackhouse Racing, recognizing the need for intervention, acknowledged that they had a heart-to-heart with Chastain in the week between Darlington and the All-Star race. The conversation centered around his racing approach and the need to make adjustments.

Reflecting on Chastain's performances prior to Darlington reveals an impressive record: four top-five finishes in seven races. However, since that event, his finishes have been far less remarkable—29th, 22nd, 22nd, and 10th, respectively. It seems as though he has lost the essence of the aggressive driver he once embodied, a cautionary development I had previously warned about. Throughout his NASCAR career, Chastain had honed an aggressive style out of necessity, as it was the path to success in this competitive world.

Some questioned whether he would temper that aggression as he ascended to the premier level. After all, now that he had reached this pinnacle, did he really need to push so hard? However, Chastain couldn't deviate from the approach that had brought him this far. It had been the driving force behind his achievements, resulting in two victories last year and a remarkable journey to Championship 4, where he fell short by a mere 236 feet.

At the outset of 2023, Chastain maintained his trademark aggression and found himself leading the points race. Yet, as the aggression waned, so too did his statistics and momentum, slipping away like a fleeting breeze. This weekend marks a return to Nashville, a prime opportunity for Chastain to rekindle his fire. He showcased his prowess at Dover in the previous two years, securing third and second Hendrick Motorsports has a perfect track record at the 1.33-mile concrete Nashville circuit this weekend, having won the last two races there. The question now is, can they achieve a three-peat? Interestingly, if we trace back to the final year of the Nashville Fairgrounds, Geoff Bodine secured a victory for HMS, making it three consecutive wins for the organization in Music City USA.

Kyle Larson's performance last year was dominant, as he led the race before settling for a fourth-place finish. However, he struggled at Dover and Darlington this year, finishing 32nd and 20th, respectively. It's worth noting that his misfortunes in those races were largely due to incidents involving Ross Chastain.

Despite these setbacks, Larson had a fast car in Dover and was an innocent victim of Chastain's actions. Similarly, he was poised for victory in Darlington until a late caution and another encounter with Chastain's bumper dashed his hopes. Keep an eye on Larson. Chase Elliott, who qualified sixth and fourth last year, emerged as the winner. He finished 11th and third this year in Dover and Darlington, respectively. Coming off a top-five finish in Sonoma two weeks ago, Elliott is hungry for a win that would secure his place in the playoffs.

William Byron, who finished third in 2021, won at Darlington this year, and claimed fourth in Dover this spring, is the next in line for victory at HMS. With two different drivers already winning at this track for the organization, Byron has the opportunity to continue their success. He has been consistent lately, securing six top-eight finishes in the last seven points-paying races.

Despite their recent struggles in finding victories, HMS remains a formidable force. After notching four wins in a span of seven races, they have only managed one victory (at Darlington) in the last seven points-paying races. This could open the door for Joe Gibbs Racing to capitalize on the situation.

Chevrolet showcased their dominance last year by leading 282 out of 300 laps, but Toyota raised the bar in 2022, leading 253 laps before a late caution reshuffled the standings and handed the win to Elliott. Toyota's trio of Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch dominated the race and are unlikely to make the same mistake twice.

Truex, riding the wave of momentum from his recent Sonoma win, may have finished 22nd in both races at Nashville, according to the stats, but he led 82 laps last year and was within reach of victory had it not been for a pit call. He swept both stages in 2022, won at Dover this year, and showcased his race-winning potential in Darlington before a crash dashed his hopes.

Hamlin's performance last year saw him lead 114 laps from the pole, finishing sixth. He also secured second place in both stages. He was fifth at Dover and 12th at Darlington this year, and a strategic pit call prevented him from reaching victory lane. He is a strong contender. Christopher Bell, in need of momentum, has shown promise with a pair of top-10 finishes (9th and 8th) and respectable performances in Dover (6th) and Darlington (14th) this year. However, his results have been inconsistent lately, and he has slipped from second to seventh in the points standings. His last top-five finish was his Bristol Dirt win on Easter Night, and 5 of his previous nine finishes have been 11th place or worse.

On the other hand, Ford has had a more modest showing at Nashville, leading a combined total of only ten laps out of 600. Last year, they had only two cars in the top eight, and the year before that, two in the top nine.

Furthermore, they led just 8 of the 400 laps at Dover and 9 of the 295 laps at Darlington. These statistics suggest that Ford may struggle this weekend, setting the stage for a battle between Hendrick and Gibbs for the win on Sunday night place, respectively. Additionally, he displayed the potential to win at Darlington, finishing as the runner-up in the last two attempts, and delivered strong performances with fifth-place finishes at this very track. The stage is set for Chastain to reclaim his aggressive spirit and reignite the momentum that once propelled him forward. Will he seize the moment and embark on a resurgence?