Photo: YouTube screenshot
As with any new technology, there needs to be a tipping point for it to become truly mass-market. Think of anything you're using right now - smartphone, digital camera, laptop, 4K TV - and you'll notice that, at some point, they were all fringe technologies that only were only adopted by the masses once there was a significant price drop.
The price is usually one of the key factors, but when it comes to something as complex as electric vehicles, there's much more than that. For one thing, people need to be convinced they are a better option than the gas-powered cars we've had for over a century. Nobody questioned that UHD was better than HD, so once TV sets that used the new technology stopped costing more than a small house, there was nothing standing in the way of their adoption.
With EVs, it's more complicated. A few other aspects need to be addressed by carmakers to ease the consumer's worries, and the most important of them are the maximum range and the charging time. Another one that is strongly correlated with the two is the availability of a charging infrastructure capable of dealing with a potential surge of EVs on the market.
This new study focuses on these four aspects (price, range, charging time, charging infrastructure) and, as you'll shortly see, manages to identify the tipping point for each of them. Unlike other research projects, this one had a huge sample of 9,000 consumers, 750 fleet managers, and 30 automotive industry professionals from eight different countries - the United States, United Kingdom, Norway, Germany, China, India, Japan, and France.
As far as the end user is concerned, price is the key factor in making the switch (for 38 percent of respondents). 27 percent quoted charging times as their main worry, while one in five mentioned maximum range as the main stumbling block. A further lower 11 percent were concerned about the infrastructure and just four percent weren't satisfied with the variety of vehicle types.
The study goes on to indicate what that tipping price is, and it is... $36,000. Yes, that's almost precisely what the base Tesla Model 3 costs (or the base Volkswagen ID.3 eventually will). In other words, the most important aspect for the consumer is already met by the industry. Even so, the public perception does not reflect that aspect: 63 percent still consider EVs beyond their budget.
The maximum range aspect, the third most important for consumers, is also mostly taken care of. According to the findings, the average range people would feel comfortable with is 291 miles (469 km), which is close to the 300 mile target most modern EVs seem to aim for, with some managing to go considerably further (the Tesla Model S Long Range and the upcoming Lucid Air are just two examples).
The biggest hurdle the industry still has to clear is the time batteries need to recharge. This ranked second in importance around consumers and is where most EVs still fall short. It would appear the public is willing to cut electric cars considerably more slack than the standard ICE vehicles by considering to wait for as long as 31 minutes (on average) until they are ready to go.
Considering a gas-burning car only needs a fraction of that, it shows the consumers understand the transition to an electric future can't be completely seamless. However, even though Tesla's Supercharger network and a few other charging stations (Ionity, for example) already offer very high charging rates, it's still the area that presents the most uncertainty.
Charging speed doesn't vary strictly based on the type of station available. It also depends on how many cars are using the station, or even whether there is a stall available or not. If not, then you'll have to add waiting time to the actual charging time as well, and we've already seen people queuing up at Tesla's Superchargers during national holidays, so it can already happen.
On the bright side, it looks like we're nearly there. The only thing left now is for the manufacturers to make sure the public is well informed and aware of the fact that most of its conditions for adopting EVs are already met. At the same time, they also need to make sure the charging infrastructure grows at least as quickly as the number of EVs on the street and that battery research continues to improve the range and, most importantly reduce the charging times.
We may not have reached the tipping point yet, but we've definitely past the point of no return.
With EVs, it's more complicated. A few other aspects need to be addressed by carmakers to ease the consumer's worries, and the most important of them are the maximum range and the charging time. Another one that is strongly correlated with the two is the availability of a charging infrastructure capable of dealing with a potential surge of EVs on the market.
This new study focuses on these four aspects (price, range, charging time, charging infrastructure) and, as you'll shortly see, manages to identify the tipping point for each of them. Unlike other research projects, this one had a huge sample of 9,000 consumers, 750 fleet managers, and 30 automotive industry professionals from eight different countries - the United States, United Kingdom, Norway, Germany, China, India, Japan, and France.
As far as the end user is concerned, price is the key factor in making the switch (for 38 percent of respondents). 27 percent quoted charging times as their main worry, while one in five mentioned maximum range as the main stumbling block. A further lower 11 percent were concerned about the infrastructure and just four percent weren't satisfied with the variety of vehicle types.
The study goes on to indicate what that tipping price is, and it is... $36,000. Yes, that's almost precisely what the base Tesla Model 3 costs (or the base Volkswagen ID.3 eventually will). In other words, the most important aspect for the consumer is already met by the industry. Even so, the public perception does not reflect that aspect: 63 percent still consider EVs beyond their budget.
The maximum range aspect, the third most important for consumers, is also mostly taken care of. According to the findings, the average range people would feel comfortable with is 291 miles (469 km), which is close to the 300 mile target most modern EVs seem to aim for, with some managing to go considerably further (the Tesla Model S Long Range and the upcoming Lucid Air are just two examples).
The biggest hurdle the industry still has to clear is the time batteries need to recharge. This ranked second in importance around consumers and is where most EVs still fall short. It would appear the public is willing to cut electric cars considerably more slack than the standard ICE vehicles by considering to wait for as long as 31 minutes (on average) until they are ready to go.
Considering a gas-burning car only needs a fraction of that, it shows the consumers understand the transition to an electric future can't be completely seamless. However, even though Tesla's Supercharger network and a few other charging stations (Ionity, for example) already offer very high charging rates, it's still the area that presents the most uncertainty.
Charging speed doesn't vary strictly based on the type of station available. It also depends on how many cars are using the station, or even whether there is a stall available or not. If not, then you'll have to add waiting time to the actual charging time as well, and we've already seen people queuing up at Tesla's Superchargers during national holidays, so it can already happen.
On the bright side, it looks like we're nearly there. The only thing left now is for the manufacturers to make sure the public is well informed and aware of the fact that most of its conditions for adopting EVs are already met. At the same time, they also need to make sure the charging infrastructure grows at least as quickly as the number of EVs on the street and that battery research continues to improve the range and, most importantly reduce the charging times.
We may not have reached the tipping point yet, but we've definitely past the point of no return.
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