Photo: @HinrichsZane via Twitter | Edited
Recent reports suggested that Tesla Semi production is not going exactly as planned, with no new deliveries outside the PepsiCo fleet. It appears that Tesla is now preparing to deliver new trucks, mostly to customers that placed large orders.
Tesla started deliveries of the Semi last December, with 36 trucks going to its launch partner PepsiCo. The Tesla Semi news stream dried out this year, except for two recalls due to a parking brake issue and a non-complying warning message concerning unlatched doors. As uneventful as they might seem, these two announcements are still significant, revealing the number of Tesla Semi in operation. And, boy, it didn't look very good for Tesla, as the numbers were essentially flat between those recalls and the December 2022 deliveries.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed there are supply issues that affect Semi production. More specifically, battery cell supply constraints are delaying Semi's production ramp-up. More worrying is that Musk doesn't expect the situation to improve until next year, with larger volumes planned no earlier than "late 2024." This might indicate that Tesla's plans to have a 50,000 annual production rate by the end of next year are unrealistic.
Battery cell constraint is an interesting development, especially as Tesla signaled earlier this year that cell supply is not an issue. Tesla was confident enough to produce more stationary batteries such as Powerwalls and Megapacks. The difference is that stationary batteries use mostly iron-base cells (LFP), while Tesla Semi needs high-nickel cells for the highest energy density possible.
Among this cell shortage, which will likely affect Cybertruck production throughout next year, Tesla is still committed to delivering more Semis to its partners. Tesla spotter Hinrichs Zane saw seven Semis at the prototype line on Monday, all wearing manufacturing plates. This is the biggest fleet Zane has seen at one time, suggesting that Tesla Semi production has picked up speed. The trucks are being stress-tested in preparation for customer deliveries as Tesla tries to catch any potential issues.
Zane believes these trucks and those built after them are part of another low-volume batch similar to the one delivered to PepsiCo. They will likely be delivered to customers who placed large Semi orders and are willing to invest in the charging infrastructure. Zane names Walmart, PGE, and UPS as possible candidates, each with over 100 orders for the Semi. We should learn more about these deliveries in the Q3 and Q4 2023 results.
Tesla is working to open a new Semi production facility in Nevada, with an annual production capacity of 50,000 trucks. Until this factory starts operating, there cannot be any volume production. Still, the works at the new factory are also delayed, and Tesla hasn't even broken ground. Tesla aims to first build the new battery factory near Giga Nevada, with an annual production capacity of 100 GWh. It makes sense when you look at this because you cannot build more vehicles without securing the battery cell supplies first.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed there are supply issues that affect Semi production. More specifically, battery cell supply constraints are delaying Semi's production ramp-up. More worrying is that Musk doesn't expect the situation to improve until next year, with larger volumes planned no earlier than "late 2024." This might indicate that Tesla's plans to have a 50,000 annual production rate by the end of next year are unrealistic.
Battery cell constraint is an interesting development, especially as Tesla signaled earlier this year that cell supply is not an issue. Tesla was confident enough to produce more stationary batteries such as Powerwalls and Megapacks. The difference is that stationary batteries use mostly iron-base cells (LFP), while Tesla Semi needs high-nickel cells for the highest energy density possible.
Among this cell shortage, which will likely affect Cybertruck production throughout next year, Tesla is still committed to delivering more Semis to its partners. Tesla spotter Hinrichs Zane saw seven Semis at the prototype line on Monday, all wearing manufacturing plates. This is the biggest fleet Zane has seen at one time, suggesting that Tesla Semi production has picked up speed. The trucks are being stress-tested in preparation for customer deliveries as Tesla tries to catch any potential issues.
Zane believes these trucks and those built after them are part of another low-volume batch similar to the one delivered to PepsiCo. They will likely be delivered to customers who placed large Semi orders and are willing to invest in the charging infrastructure. Zane names Walmart, PGE, and UPS as possible candidates, each with over 100 orders for the Semi. We should learn more about these deliveries in the Q3 and Q4 2023 results.
Tesla is working to open a new Semi production facility in Nevada, with an annual production capacity of 50,000 trucks. Until this factory starts operating, there cannot be any volume production. Still, the works at the new factory are also delayed, and Tesla hasn't even broken ground. Tesla aims to first build the new battery factory near Giga Nevada, with an annual production capacity of 100 GWh. It makes sense when you look at this because you cannot build more vehicles without securing the battery cell supplies first.
The wait is over! Supplier issues seem to be improving. These appear to be new and will be stress-tested by Tesla in order to uncover any potential issues before the next round of customer deliveries. They are running them hard! pic.twitter.com/GSSBG6AtBG
— Zanegler (@HinrichsZane) June 19, 2023
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