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Analysts are trying to decide when it is that electric vehicles will outnumber those with internal combustion engines, and their predictions vary from less than ten years from now all the way to 2040.
At this point, though, their efforts are much like Schrodinger's cat: they are both true and false at the same time - or, to put it into a single word, they are useless. And that's because they can only rely on the things we currently know and the speculations that derive from them.
However, should one of the governments of an important market - preferably one with a strong automotive industry as well - decide to take certain actions that would favor one type of propulsion or the other, the transition could be reversed on its head or accelerated significantly.
Let's not kid ourselves into believing the switch to EVs will be possible without the intervention of the authorities, because it won't. Just look at what's happening in Norway where battery-powered have countless incentives, including a very hefty VAT deduction.
But it's not all about money. In Austria, for example, the highway speed limit has dropped from 130 km/h (~80 mph) to 100 km/h (62 mph) on certain segments to cut down the levels of particulate pollution. Considering the reason behind it, electric cars should be exempt from this restriction, and the government is looking to pass a mandate that would enable them to zip by their ICE counterparts at 130 km/h. That is assuming the left lane would be clear (according to KleineZeitung.at).
If enough of these non-monetary incentives pile up, people who otherwise wouldn't have even considered an electric car might be convinced to make the switch. Combine that with a large network of high-speed charging stations that would cut the idle time significantly as well as a drop in purchasing price, and the new generations will see no reason to go for anything other than electric.
The Austrian government also considers granting EVs other advantages such as free parking in cities or access to the bus lanes, which would help them during rush hour. Similar measures are already in place in other parts of the world where they have pushed people to make radical decisions, like this guy who sold his Lamborghini Aventador for a 1st-gen Tesla Roadster just because it was a better match with the L.A. traffic.
However, should one of the governments of an important market - preferably one with a strong automotive industry as well - decide to take certain actions that would favor one type of propulsion or the other, the transition could be reversed on its head or accelerated significantly.
Let's not kid ourselves into believing the switch to EVs will be possible without the intervention of the authorities, because it won't. Just look at what's happening in Norway where battery-powered have countless incentives, including a very hefty VAT deduction.
But it's not all about money. In Austria, for example, the highway speed limit has dropped from 130 km/h (~80 mph) to 100 km/h (62 mph) on certain segments to cut down the levels of particulate pollution. Considering the reason behind it, electric cars should be exempt from this restriction, and the government is looking to pass a mandate that would enable them to zip by their ICE counterparts at 130 km/h. That is assuming the left lane would be clear (according to KleineZeitung.at).
If enough of these non-monetary incentives pile up, people who otherwise wouldn't have even considered an electric car might be convinced to make the switch. Combine that with a large network of high-speed charging stations that would cut the idle time significantly as well as a drop in purchasing price, and the new generations will see no reason to go for anything other than electric.
The Austrian government also considers granting EVs other advantages such as free parking in cities or access to the bus lanes, which would help them during rush hour. Similar measures are already in place in other parts of the world where they have pushed people to make radical decisions, like this guy who sold his Lamborghini Aventador for a 1st-gen Tesla Roadster just because it was a better match with the L.A. traffic.
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