Lucid Overcomes Its Revised 2022 Production Target, but Still Suffers Parts Shortage Woes

Around the same time last year, Lucid adjusted its production target by lowering them from 12,000 – 14,000 to 6,000 – 7,000. It blamed logistics and supply chain issues for the halved guidance. As time passed, the brand’s decision proved to be the right one because things went exactly as the renewed prediction. Unfortunately, it was not enough for Wall Street estimates, and that caused the stock price to tumble a bit.

For 2022, the automaker made 180 more cars than what its revised targets said, but it encouraged investors to continue believing in the company by announcing hopeful production guidance of 10,000 to 14,000 units in 2023.

The carmaker has around 28,000 reservations which are not included in the 100,000 vehicles that are supposed to reach Saudi Arabia. But placing a reservation does not guarantee a customer will receive a production slot or have the vehicle end up in their hands after the buying process is reached. Some may have second thoughts and back off, while others may have gotten another one in the meantime. Reservations are nonbinding understandings, even though they imply a $300 deposit for Air Pure models and $1,000 for the Touring and Grand Touring.

Lucid says it still has almost $5 billion laying around and finished 2022 with a total revenue of $608 million. This represents a net loss of around $2.5 billion, but it is not as bad as it looks because in 2021 the brand reported nearly double as much negative performance.

However, Lucid’s CEO (who’s also the CTO) said in the earnings call that the automaker must deal with new supply chain issues regarding its blacked-out units that sport the Stealth package. Customers preferred the under-the-radar look and ordered many Air units in this spec, which might tell us why we’ve seen so many vehicles waiting to find their owners in the marque’s Arizona plant parking lot. Hundreds of units have been spotted a couple of weeks ago still stuck in the same area. Considering deliveries have started in Europe too, Lucid must quickly figure out a way in which it will finish stealth Airs to send them out faster.

Lucid's Arizona Plant Parking Lot as seen on February 1st, 2023

Peter Rawlinson, however, assured investors and the media that Lucid is working to solve the delays and is working together with the suppliers to ship everything out as soon as possible. If things continue to follow a positive trend and the global geopolitical landscape won’t deteriorate, Lucid could meet or even exceed its guidance for the current year.

The company also plans to invest more in marketing while it says that a strong focus on “capital discipline” will remain paramount. Even though it must continue ramping up production and delivering all the units it made, the company says it eyes growth while remaining focused on reducing costs. This sounds ambitious and the fact that it introduced a $7,500 discount for some Air models might help. But the current sentiment surrounding posh EVs is not one that may warrant optimism.

Still, Lucid’s vehicles remain out of reach for most Americans (and Europeans) because they are expensive and the much-awaited SUV nicknamed Project Gravity is still nowhere to be seen. High-riding vehicles are important because this sector is where customers tend to allow themselves to spend a little bit more than would normally be necessary.

Finally, Lucid still has the rumored total takeover that’s reportedly being planned by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) looming over its head. It’s unlikely that it will materialize in due time, but the country’s EV ambitions might help Lucid expand to new markets, find new buyers, and grow its portfolio.