The Most Important Things To Look Forward to at the 2023 Honda Indy Toronto Event

Just as Palou wrestled with the prospect of the drop zone, rain decided to enter the fray on the 1.786-mile street course. Mother nature denied him the big lap he needed to propel himself to the next round as if to mock him. Consequently, his starting position fell to a discouraging 15th. Rain or no rain, Palou declined to use the weather as a crutch, insisting that their overall speed was simply underwhelming. Now, the question that lingers is how far he can surge through the field. Last year, he managed to power his way from 22nd to 6th place.

In the season finale, he rocketed from 11th to claim victory, a testament to his resilience. Keep an eye out for Colton Herta's trajectory as well. Saturday morning saw him snag the fastest time and fourth place on Friday. But a wrong group choice and difficulty in the wets banished him to the 14th starting spot. Considering Palou's Friday performance and his Saturday qualifying position, it's plausible that Herta could close the gap. Regardless, Palou is set to leave Toronto with the points lead intact. What remains to be seen is the degree to which his lead will shrink... if it shrinks at all.

The closest competitors, Scott Dixon (holding second place but only managing 11th and 8th in practice) and Josef Newgarden (third in points but starting 11th), may not pose a significant threat, and Palou might very well overtake them in the race. However, if Dixon or Newgarden hope to bridge the gap to Palou, their journey must commence with a victory this Sunday. Consider the ground they could regain.

Recollecting the 2020 season, Dixon dominated the first three races and achieved top two in four out of the first five. Dixon seemed insurmountable after seizing victory at the World Wide Technology Raceway on August 29. In contrast, Newgarden trailed by over 117 points going into the second race of the St. Louis weekend. Undeterred, he forged ahead, coming tantalizingly close to snatching the title. How did he cover such a significant gap? The answer lies in speed and talent. Given this, one can't help but imagine the outcome if Newgarden had kicked off the season on a stronger note. He finished the season with a remarkable record: five top-four finishes in a six-race span, four of which were in the top two. In comparison, Dixon only secured one podium and two top fives.

These racing veterans have a winning track record at the Honda Indy Toronto; they've jointly triumphed in 6 of the last ten races, including four of the last six and three of the last four. Dixon is arriving on the back of a second-place finish in Mid-Ohio and has managed three consecutive top-two finishes here, including a victory last season. Newgarden also boasts two victories. As we move to the doubleheader in Iowa, Newgarden's winning streak in six of the last eight oval races, including two this season, renders him a formidable threat at both Iowa and Gateway, constituting three races in a five-race stretch.

While Dixon's record at Iowa remains unblemished by a victory, he's consistently placed within the top five in the last five races, including two second-place finishes. Following Iowa, the action relocates to Nashville, where Dixon claimed victory last year and a second-place finish in 2022. Thereafter, it's off to the Indy road course, where both Dixon and Newgarden and Palou have tasted victory. Gateway is next on the schedule.

As for Palou's track record at Iowa and Gateway is marked by inconsistency, with finishes ranging from sixth to 20th. Despite this, hope persists. Honda's recent track record on street courses this season is impeccable, with victories in all three. Will they replicate this success in Toronto (Sunday) and Nashville (August 6)? Ganassi boasts two victories at Nashville and two of the last three in Toronto. Their overall record on street courses is impressive, with four wins out of the last five events.

Although Honda reigns supreme on street courses, Chevy dominates on short ovals. Interestingly, the most exciting points race might actually be between those in the P4 to P7 positions. Marcus Ericsson sits in fourth place and has two podium finishes in three street races this season, including a victory in St. Pete. He ranked P6 and P3 in practice and will start fourth. Pato O'Ward sits in fifth place in points and was P8 and P5 in practice, qualifying in third place. Despite being fifth and 14th in practice, Scott McLaughlin managed to start in second place. His teammate, Will Power, will start in sixth place.

Eager eyes turn to Sunday's racing scenario, with O'Ward and Ericsson set to ignite fireworks on the starting line. In these city-course contests, audaciousness is king, and this duo is primed to illustrate that. Ericsson's past history of reckless starts, most recently demonstrated at Mid-Ohio, hints at a potentially explosive pairing at the kick-off.

Recalling the Indianapolis altercation, O'Ward did not mince words about his stance towards Ericsson. His aggressive approach has marked past races at Long Beach and Detroit. However, an engine failure at St. Pete robbed him of victory, gifting Ericsson the crown. His unquenchable thirst for redemption fuels this brewing rivalry. Team Penske and Ganassi Racing have historically dominated city courses, accounting for seven of the last eight victories and 13 of the last 19 overall. Only Andretti Autosport and Arrow McLaren Racing have managed to break their stranglehold.

The impending Sunday race, likely a showdown between Penske and Ganassi, promises excitement. They hold strong starting positions and have consistently delivered top-tier performances. While Ganassi has won four of the last five street-course races, Penske's earlier victories have been dampened by recent mediocre finishes. Will Toronto be the stage where Penske rediscovers its former glory? RLL, Arrow McLaren Racing, and Andretti Autosport have secured respectable starting positions on the grid. But, the might of Penske and Ganassi looms large, with their winners accounting for 10 of the top 11 starters and boasting a record of 1-12 on Friday.

The Big Four, since 2022, have been undefeated, maintaining an unbroken 37-win streak that extends back to 2021. They've dominated the Aeroscreen era, winning 94.7% of the races. Teams outside the Big Four have had rare moments of glory - such as Meyer Shank Racing in 2021 and Ed Carpenter Racing and RLL with their respective Indy 500 victories. The Big Four is a testament to the adage: there are the best, the good, and the rest. Penske, Ganassi, Andretti, and McLaren have dominated the podium, while RLL, ECR, and MSR have had a fleeting taste of victory.

Despite Penske and Ganassi's stronghold on the top starting positions, Andretti and McLaren boast four of the top nine spots, indicating a possible shift in the wind. An incoming rainstorm could throw a wrench into Sunday's race, especially considering Andretti Autosport's stellar dry-weather performance and less than ideal wet weather qualifying. It's clear that if the skies open, Sunday's race could turn into an unpredictable thriller.