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Not Going Anywhere: Boeing Starliner First Crewed Launch Delayed Until at Least March 2024

Boeing Starliner 20 photos
Photo: Boeing
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From a certain point of view, the primary reason Boeing's CST-100 Starliner spacecraft exists is to not burden Lockheed Martin's Orion space capsule with mundane missions like service flights to the International Space Station. But while Orion has already taken a trip around the Moon, Boeing's going to be waiting a fair bit longer to put astronauts aboard Starliner for its first human-crewed flight. Based on the latest estimates, it won't get off the ground until next March at the earliest.
Since the late 2010s, work has steadily been running at Boeing in preparation for the first human-crewed launch of Boeing's Starliner spacecraft. This flight is due to be crewed by two veteran astronauts, Barry E. Whitmore and Sunita Williams, and was initially anticipated to take place as far back as 2017 before various engineering delays and time overruns consistently pushed back this date into the early 2020s. Even as back-to-back un-crewed Starliner flight tests in 2019 and 2022 were completed with varying degrees of success, the tentative date for the Boeing Crewed Flight Test (Boe CFT) continued to be delayed until no earlier than July 21st, 2023.

Had all gone according to plan, Boe CFT would have launched on this day via an Atlas V rocket out of launch site SLC-41 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Base in Florida. But, in June of this year, Boeing and NASA released a joint press statement declaring further technical challenges would delay Boe CFT's launch even further. Admittedly, Boeing has a very rational justification for further delays, sighting safety concerns. Citing issues with the suspension cables which hold Starliner's triple parachute system in place. According to Boeing, the structural integrity of the links between the parachute and the Starliner spacecraft aren't quite as strong as first thought.

Furthermore, it's been found that a layer of specially formulated protective tape which surrounds Starliner's many complex electronics is, in fact, at least somewhat flammable. For those who know the harrowing tale of Apollo 1's spacecraft fire almost 60 years ago, even the remote chance of fire taking place on Starliner is enough to justify delaying its first human-crewed mission indefinitely. The bulk of the re-engineering at Boeing regarding this issue will involve replacing this protective tape wherever possible while creating a significant buffer zone between the said tape and any source of heat where outright replacement isn't feasible.

With this in mind, it's at least understandable why Boeing is choosing to play it safe instead of being sorry. But in the meantime, Boeing's competitors at SpaceX and Lockheed Martin continue to make advancements that leave Boeing even more in the dust. Considering that Boeing has already seen upwards of $1 billion in losses from just the Starliner alone, walking the proverbial tightrope between maximum safety and endless deadline extensions is becoming ever more precarious for the company as each month passes.

For the moment, March of 2024 is the absolute earliest point that Boeing expects Boe CFT to launch. But in truth, further delays while engineering challenges are analyzed and repaired can't be ruled out in seven or so months between now and the first expected launch window. The launch date can and will be pushed back even further should Boeing uncover further issues with any of Starliner's sub-systems. But rest assured; Starliner will launch with crew aboard one day. It's simply a question of when.
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