Photo: Citroen
Before you say anything, talking about the near future like you're a modern version of Nostradamus is a bit pointless, I agree. That doesn't stop me or anyone else from trying to play the guessing game, though. Maybe we can all learn something from it.
As many of you who were alive in the 1990s and 1980s have come to realize, the automotive industry has started to evolve a bit more abruptly in recent years, or more specifically in the last decade or so. Sure, there have been a lot of mini “revolutions” in the history of the car, but none of them were as crowded in a single decade as they are now.
Judging by the latest automotive trends, the next couple of years or so will be even more chock-full with disruptive technologies and sci-fi-worthy innovations regarding our beloved automobile.
The problem is that consumer behavior is continuously changing, and whatever trend's birth we think that we're witnessing now could die or expand in the blink of an eye. Remember when everyone wanted to buy the newest and coolest 3D TV or a tablet? They did it once, and that was it. I still have a Nexus 7 and don't really crave for a newer, more modern tablet. Then again, maybe I'm part of a weird minority because on some days I feel like I could still rock a Nokia phone without feeling like a weirdo.
That said, automotive technology is evolving at a much more rapid pace, and its development has started to follow an exponential scale. In other words, it's not just about what the consumers want, but about the type of technologies that will be forced upon them by automakers and suppliers.
Most analysts agree that we can split upcoming automotive technology trends in four distinct but also connected paths, and each of those paths has already started to rear its high-tech head in the last couple of years.
I'm talking about electrification, car sharing, autonomous driving and enhanced connectivity. Electrification was first, with lots of people talking about Tesla as a pioneer in this area, mainly because it's the most successful electric-only carmaker in history. Elon Musk's baby isn't alone on the market, though, as Faraday Future wants to skip a few steps in its battle to dethrone Tesla, while traditional carmakers have slowly started to jump on the electric bandwagon as well in recent years.
Going forward, I wouldn't bet my money on Tesla to keep its No. 1 spot and not by a long shot. Despite all the talk and the positive hype that the company is splattered with, we're still looking at a carmaker that is not profitable and won't be in the near future. Sure, there are a lot of ongoing investments and from many perspectives, Tesla is still a startup, but it's walking on thin ice and will continue to do so until it starts showering its shareholders with money.
When people talk about car sharing, Uber and Lyft are usually mentioned, despite both companies having slightly different modus operandi. Lyft is already in cahoots with General Motors, while Uber is rumored to buy a whole lot of Mercedes-Benz S-Class models for a reason that is still on the mysterious side of things.
On the other hand, Uber, the bigger of the two, lost over a billion USD just in the first half of 2016. Both startups not only face a lot of opposition from some governments and taxi companies, but they already have to fight competition from similar companies started by carmakers (Daimler has car2go, BMW has DriveNow and Volkswagen has Quicar).
Autonomous driving seems to be the newest fad, but despite all the hiccups and marketing problems it went through in the last few months, it looks like the technology is not only here to stay, but to evolve as well. From that point of view we have to look at Tesla again, but traditional carmakers like Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz are at about the same level, if not ahead when it comes to R&D. The winner in this area of technology is probably the hardest to decipher, mainly because just about everyone is doing it, and there will be a time in the future where virtually every car will have fully autonomous features.
The fourth path to be taken by upcoming car technology disruptors has already started as well, but it's currently at a very early stage of progress. I'm talking about enhanced connectivity, or the Internet of Things. We already have smartphones, smart TVs and even refrigerators connected via the Internet, so why not cars as well. For the time being, the only production car on the planet that comes equipped from the factory with Car-to-X communication capabilities is the Mercedes-Benz E-Class, but that should soon change. In the near future, more and more cars will be able to communicate with each other, with us and even with traffic lights to increase safety, comfort and that dreaded 1984 feeling.
All in all, these four technology advancement paths are both distinct and connected with each other because, although different, they can evolve together and can be used simultaneously. The winner, as in the most disruptive carmaker of 2020 and onward will be the one that can integrate them all into one package. Currently, I wouldn't bet on anyone because anything can happen. I'm sort of inclined toward someone from Germany, though, but don't quote me on that.
Judging by the latest automotive trends, the next couple of years or so will be even more chock-full with disruptive technologies and sci-fi-worthy innovations regarding our beloved automobile.
The problem is that consumer behavior is continuously changing, and whatever trend's birth we think that we're witnessing now could die or expand in the blink of an eye. Remember when everyone wanted to buy the newest and coolest 3D TV or a tablet? They did it once, and that was it. I still have a Nexus 7 and don't really crave for a newer, more modern tablet. Then again, maybe I'm part of a weird minority because on some days I feel like I could still rock a Nokia phone without feeling like a weirdo.
That said, automotive technology is evolving at a much more rapid pace, and its development has started to follow an exponential scale. In other words, it's not just about what the consumers want, but about the type of technologies that will be forced upon them by automakers and suppliers.
Most analysts agree that we can split upcoming automotive technology trends in four distinct but also connected paths, and each of those paths has already started to rear its high-tech head in the last couple of years.
I'm talking about electrification, car sharing, autonomous driving and enhanced connectivity. Electrification was first, with lots of people talking about Tesla as a pioneer in this area, mainly because it's the most successful electric-only carmaker in history. Elon Musk's baby isn't alone on the market, though, as Faraday Future wants to skip a few steps in its battle to dethrone Tesla, while traditional carmakers have slowly started to jump on the electric bandwagon as well in recent years.
Going forward, I wouldn't bet my money on Tesla to keep its No. 1 spot and not by a long shot. Despite all the talk and the positive hype that the company is splattered with, we're still looking at a carmaker that is not profitable and won't be in the near future. Sure, there are a lot of ongoing investments and from many perspectives, Tesla is still a startup, but it's walking on thin ice and will continue to do so until it starts showering its shareholders with money.
When people talk about car sharing, Uber and Lyft are usually mentioned, despite both companies having slightly different modus operandi. Lyft is already in cahoots with General Motors, while Uber is rumored to buy a whole lot of Mercedes-Benz S-Class models for a reason that is still on the mysterious side of things.
On the other hand, Uber, the bigger of the two, lost over a billion USD just in the first half of 2016. Both startups not only face a lot of opposition from some governments and taxi companies, but they already have to fight competition from similar companies started by carmakers (Daimler has car2go, BMW has DriveNow and Volkswagen has Quicar).
Autonomous driving seems to be the newest fad, but despite all the hiccups and marketing problems it went through in the last few months, it looks like the technology is not only here to stay, but to evolve as well. From that point of view we have to look at Tesla again, but traditional carmakers like Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz are at about the same level, if not ahead when it comes to R&D. The winner in this area of technology is probably the hardest to decipher, mainly because just about everyone is doing it, and there will be a time in the future where virtually every car will have fully autonomous features.
The fourth path to be taken by upcoming car technology disruptors has already started as well, but it's currently at a very early stage of progress. I'm talking about enhanced connectivity, or the Internet of Things. We already have smartphones, smart TVs and even refrigerators connected via the Internet, so why not cars as well. For the time being, the only production car on the planet that comes equipped from the factory with Car-to-X communication capabilities is the Mercedes-Benz E-Class, but that should soon change. In the near future, more and more cars will be able to communicate with each other, with us and even with traffic lights to increase safety, comfort and that dreaded 1984 feeling.
All in all, these four technology advancement paths are both distinct and connected with each other because, although different, they can evolve together and can be used simultaneously. The winner, as in the most disruptive carmaker of 2020 and onward will be the one that can integrate them all into one package. Currently, I wouldn't bet on anyone because anything can happen. I'm sort of inclined toward someone from Germany, though, but don't quote me on that.
Google News