Photo: Stratolaunch
The Covid pandemic took its toll on the world to a degree not experienced before by our society. It affected lives and businesses with equal force, and for a rather long period of time no one was sure when things would return to normal.
Somehow, we pulled through it, and the pieces of our lives are now slowly falling back into place. Including in the aviation industry, one of the worst hit by the lockdowns. In fact, one of the biggest players in this segment, Boeing, is feeling pretty confident about the future.
The company published over the weekend, on the sidelines of the Paris Air Show, its 2023 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO, something it has been doing ever since the 1960s), and in it the forecast for the industry over the next two decades can be studied. Some may find Boeing's predictions there overly optimistic, but the aerospace giant usually knows what it's talking about, so they are worth a closer look.
Provided no other cataclysmic event happens, it's estimated the commercial jet market will need no less than 42,595 new airplanes over the next 20 years. That's a very exact number, but based on the trends the company is seeing in the market now, and means an average of over 2,100 planes sold each year.
The prediction is fueled by the fact passenger traffic growth is ahead of the economic growth by 2.6 percent. That in turn drives, at least in part, the airlines' push to renew their fleets – in fact, about half of the global fleet will likely be replaced in the near future, including with more fuel-efficient airplanes.
Boeing also cites things like the continuous rise of low-cost carriers and the increased demand for cargo delivery as driving forces behind the huge number of airplanes expected to sell by 2042.
As for the markets that will fuel this increase, Europe and North America will each account for about 20 percent of the overall demand. China, on the other hand, will alone be responsible for half of the 40 percent of the airplanes expected to sell in the Asia-Pacific region.
When it comes to the type of airplanes that will be in high demand, single-aisle ones will continue to be the kings of the industry, accounting for about 75 percent of the total (around 32,000 airplanes). Widebody jets will make up for 20 percent, while cargo airplanes make up the rest.
And if you were wondering how much exactly 42,595 new airplanes are worth, Boeing has a number for that too: $8 trillion. That's not including the $3.8 trillion coming from the commercial services associated with these planes.
Can you venture to guess how much of that the American company hopes to get for itself?
The company published over the weekend, on the sidelines of the Paris Air Show, its 2023 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO, something it has been doing ever since the 1960s), and in it the forecast for the industry over the next two decades can be studied. Some may find Boeing's predictions there overly optimistic, but the aerospace giant usually knows what it's talking about, so they are worth a closer look.
Provided no other cataclysmic event happens, it's estimated the commercial jet market will need no less than 42,595 new airplanes over the next 20 years. That's a very exact number, but based on the trends the company is seeing in the market now, and means an average of over 2,100 planes sold each year.
The prediction is fueled by the fact passenger traffic growth is ahead of the economic growth by 2.6 percent. That in turn drives, at least in part, the airlines' push to renew their fleets – in fact, about half of the global fleet will likely be replaced in the near future, including with more fuel-efficient airplanes.
Boeing also cites things like the continuous rise of low-cost carriers and the increased demand for cargo delivery as driving forces behind the huge number of airplanes expected to sell by 2042.
As for the markets that will fuel this increase, Europe and North America will each account for about 20 percent of the overall demand. China, on the other hand, will alone be responsible for half of the 40 percent of the airplanes expected to sell in the Asia-Pacific region.
When it comes to the type of airplanes that will be in high demand, single-aisle ones will continue to be the kings of the industry, accounting for about 75 percent of the total (around 32,000 airplanes). Widebody jets will make up for 20 percent, while cargo airplanes make up the rest.
And if you were wondering how much exactly 42,595 new airplanes are worth, Boeing has a number for that too: $8 trillion. That's not including the $3.8 trillion coming from the commercial services associated with these planes.
Can you venture to guess how much of that the American company hopes to get for itself?
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