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Toyota Sees No Reason to Be Optimistic Over End of Chip Shortage

Toyota expects to make over 10 million vehicles this year 47 photos
Photo: Florin Profir/autoevolution
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Toyota, one of the companies hit the hardest by the constrained chip inventory in the last three years, says the semiconductor crunch is very likely to remain a big concern in 2023.
The Japanese carmaker explains that anticipating what’s going to happen in the supply chain is still difficult, not only because of the global health issue (which could still hurt some of its suppliers) but also due to the lack of semiconductors.

The shortage is showing signs of recovery, but Toyota says it can’t ignore the impact that the lack of chips can eventually have on its production capacity. The company has previously suspended production at all its Japanese facilities due to the semiconductor crisis, with the yearly output eventually impacted as well.

In 2023, Toyota believes it would be able to produce a maximum of 10.6 million units if everything goes according to the plan. However, the automaker acknowledges that the production challenges caused by the parts supply shortages could eventually impact this figure.

Toyota says the baseline production shouldn’t drop below 10 percent of the yearly target, so in theory, the company should still be able to produce over 9.5 million vehicles in 2023 no matter what.

On the other hand, the uncertainty that’s still swirling around in the automotive industry is the one that makes Toyota extremely cautious when it comes down to releasing production estimates for 2023. While some companies expect the global chip shortage to ease off gradually in the first half of the year and then be resolved completely towards the end of 2023, Toyota doesn’t seem too optimistic that such a scenario is very likely.

The prediction released by the Japanese automaker is in line with the expectations of other large companies in the market as well. A few months ago, GM’s CEO Mary Barra said she expects the constrained chip inventory to remain a problem in 2023 and even “beyond,” therefore suggesting that the production of cars could still be impacted in the long term.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the ridiculously long waiting times for new cars would be resolved anytime soon. Toyota says it’s continuously working with everybody involved in the supply chain to make sure cars would be produced and shipped as fast as possible, but we all know what this means. The constrained chip inventory continues to cause headaches for carmakers, and despite Toyota’s efforts to achieve minimal fluctuation, the uncertainty could lead to production slowdowns.

If anything, tech giant Intel has previously estimated the chip shortage would continue to wreak havoc in the world until the end of 2024 despite all investments in capacity, and judging by the current production struggles in the automotive space, this forecast is very likely to be spot on.
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About the author: Bogdan Popa
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Bogdan keeps an eye on how technology is taking over the car world. His long-term goals are buying an 18-wheeler because he needs more space for his kid’s toys, and convincing Google and Apple that Android Auto and CarPlay deserve at least as much attention as their phones.
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