Photo: Audi
The car industry will remain the main driver behind the Li-Ion battery market in the next 10 years, changing the landscape according to its needs. As such, only three cell chemistries are expected to dominate the battery landscape well into the 2030s, leaving all others behind.
With the world already on the way to replacing all ICE vehicles with battery-electric alternatives, Li-Ion batteries have become more important than ever. Scientists are working around the clock to develop new chemistries while at the same time optimizing those in use today. Although the progress seems slow, there’s no denying that present-day electric vehicles have vastly superior batteries than those of the last decade. That’s why the next decade will bring notable improvements, although they will still seem slow to those expecting miracles.
A recent report by IDTechEX shows that the market for Li-ion batteries will balloon to a whopping $430 billion by 2033, thanks to healthy demand from the automotive industry. Fair enough, you cannot have an EV revolution without a battery revolution, and that in itself is set to bring improvements across the board. This is because the Li-Ion battery market will have to meet stringent demand from the EV makers, which will dictate not only output but also the technologies used and developed from now on.
IDTechEx’s study shows how the past decade has seen most EV markets outside China adopt either NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt oxide) or NCA (nickel-cobalt-aluminum oxide) chemistries. This is mainly because they offer high energy densities, ensuring an EV using such batteries will have a long range while keeping the weight in check.
Even though the two chemistries are the most used today, they differ wildly depending on the company that makes them and those that use them. The seemingly slow advancement has seen a steady increase in Nickel content used in cathode materials while cobalt content has lowered. This happened because the higher Nickel content brings improved energy density, while the cobalt is expensive and problematic to source.
“NMC 111 (equal parts Ni, Mn, Co) has been replaced by NMC 532 and NMC 622, the use of NMC 811 is expanding, and major cathode manufacturers are looking to move toward 90+% nickel in NMC and NCA,” writes the IDTechEx report. “This is being driven by a desire to reduce expensive and potentially problematically sourced cobalt, as well as to increase capacity and energy density as much as possible. Difficulties remain in ensuring the safety and longevity of these materials.”
While the NMC and NCA chemistries will continue to dominate the battery market in the next decade, the market pressure favors a third chemistry type. Tesla, Volkswagen, Ford, and Stellantis have already adopted LFP (lithium iron phosphate) chemistries in some markets, especially for mass-market and lower-cost vehicles.
Although not as energy-dense as the other two dominant chemistries, the LFP cells are far cheaper. That’s why IDTechEx expects the LFP production capacity to grow at a CAGR of around 31% over the next five years, much faster than NCM and NCA production (CAGR of 19%).
LFP will become dominant in the cheaper vehicle segments thanks to their lower prices. This poses new problems because Chinese companies produce most LFP batteries, and ditching nickel and cobalt for LFP cells will accentuate the reliance on China. Of course, there are other chemistries on the market, but those still pose significant problems, mainly related to lower lifecycle and safety compared to the three dominant chemistries.
A recent report by IDTechEX shows that the market for Li-ion batteries will balloon to a whopping $430 billion by 2033, thanks to healthy demand from the automotive industry. Fair enough, you cannot have an EV revolution without a battery revolution, and that in itself is set to bring improvements across the board. This is because the Li-Ion battery market will have to meet stringent demand from the EV makers, which will dictate not only output but also the technologies used and developed from now on.
IDTechEx’s study shows how the past decade has seen most EV markets outside China adopt either NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt oxide) or NCA (nickel-cobalt-aluminum oxide) chemistries. This is mainly because they offer high energy densities, ensuring an EV using such batteries will have a long range while keeping the weight in check.
Even though the two chemistries are the most used today, they differ wildly depending on the company that makes them and those that use them. The seemingly slow advancement has seen a steady increase in Nickel content used in cathode materials while cobalt content has lowered. This happened because the higher Nickel content brings improved energy density, while the cobalt is expensive and problematic to source.
“NMC 111 (equal parts Ni, Mn, Co) has been replaced by NMC 532 and NMC 622, the use of NMC 811 is expanding, and major cathode manufacturers are looking to move toward 90+% nickel in NMC and NCA,” writes the IDTechEx report. “This is being driven by a desire to reduce expensive and potentially problematically sourced cobalt, as well as to increase capacity and energy density as much as possible. Difficulties remain in ensuring the safety and longevity of these materials.”
While the NMC and NCA chemistries will continue to dominate the battery market in the next decade, the market pressure favors a third chemistry type. Tesla, Volkswagen, Ford, and Stellantis have already adopted LFP (lithium iron phosphate) chemistries in some markets, especially for mass-market and lower-cost vehicles.
Although not as energy-dense as the other two dominant chemistries, the LFP cells are far cheaper. That’s why IDTechEx expects the LFP production capacity to grow at a CAGR of around 31% over the next five years, much faster than NCM and NCA production (CAGR of 19%).
LFP will become dominant in the cheaper vehicle segments thanks to their lower prices. This poses new problems because Chinese companies produce most LFP batteries, and ditching nickel and cobalt for LFP cells will accentuate the reliance on China. Of course, there are other chemistries on the market, but those still pose significant problems, mainly related to lower lifecycle and safety compared to the three dominant chemistries.
Google News