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The Future of Spaceflight Will be Fraught With Danger, Humanity Shouldn't Shy Away

I had a thought to myself this past February 1st, with the 20th anniversary of the Space Shuttle Columbia's and all seven of its crew tragic loss. For a certain group of space geeks, the Columbia disaster was one of our very first lucid memories.
Space Shuttle Columbia Window Frame 33 photos
Photo: NASA
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I remember the somber tone of the people reporting the disaster on the news, but also the look of obvious dread even a toddler could identify. It was as if my five-year-old brain couldn't comprehend what had just happened yet. I'm sure my parents thought a young mind probably shouldn't be exposed to photographs of a multi-billion dollar spacecraft and all the souls aboard falling to Earth like a screaming meteor. But hey, we all make plans, and the powers that be laugh, right?

Making Sense Out of What Feels Senseless

The loss of Columbia ensured, on top of everything else, that the Space Shuttle program wasn't long for this world. By the early 2010s, the four orbiters that remained, minus Challenger and Columbia, were nothing but admittedly brilliant museum pieces. But in 2023, humanity is on the verge of the next great space race. This means we're going to have to make some concessions about the inevitabilities of space travel.

To date, 15 American, European, Israeli, and Indian astronauts have been lost in accidents involving vehicles attempting to enter, operate in, practice for, or return from low Earth orbit (LEO). That's on top of four Soviet Cosmonauts lost. Only three Soviets of the Soyuz 11 crew have ever been lost while in the vacuum of space or across the other side of the Kármán line. The respective losses of Space Shuttle Challenger and Columbia alone account for almost 80 percent of that figure.

But even so, these statistics only tell a fraction of the story. Apart from the brave astronauts and cosmonauts, a further 11 astronauts and test pilots have been lost in accidents while training for future missions. A stunning number of ground personnel have also been lost in accidents across all the world's private and government space agencies, as many as 45.

Space Shuttle Columbia 20th Anniversary
Photo: NASA
Training accidents are bound to take place in any vehicular medium. But almost nobody talks about the 113 Americans, Chinese, West European, and Eastern-Block citizens who perished in unforeseen rocket explosions during its launch phase. As most aerospace fans already know, the first vehicle slated for conversion into a space vehicle was the German Wehrmacht's own V2 ballistic missile.

Celebrating Not Just the Astronauts, but the Ground Crews as Well

Of course, when people think of spaceflight tests gone sickenly wrong, you can't help but think of the loss of Apollo 1. That fateful ground test in which a fire broke out inside the fully oxygenated Apollo Command Module claimed the lives of Virgil "Gus" Griffon, Edward White, and Roger Chaffe. It also became another rallying cry for NASA to beat the Soviets to the Moon as President Kennedy's assassination did four years prior. In total, the final total adds up to at least 188 souls lost in accidents related to space travel as of early 2023. Among those deceased are people from all corners of the globe and from both private and government agencies.

Delving even further, as many as 38 space missions have been noted as coming very close to the loss of their crew yet managed to escape the hands of fate with their lives. Even during the re-entry of Vostok 1, the first orbital space mission with Yuri Gagarin aboard had such an accident.

During this mission, Gagarin's Vostok 3KA spacecraft's service module failed to separate from its re-entry module until ten minutes after it began skimming the atmosphere. Before the decade was out, both Gagarin and his fellow cosmonaut and good friend Vladimir Komarov would both be lost in accidents.

Space Shuttle Columbia 20th Anniversary
Photo: NASA
But what might hit closer to home so soon after the 20th anniversary of Space Shuttle Columbia's loss is the events of STS-27. During this mission, a slab of foam insulation from the orbiter's external fuel tank smashed right through Space Shuttle Atlantis heat-ablating tiles. Ultimately, despite concerns that there wasn't a way to get Atlantis' crew home again, the orbiter managed to make it home intact at the Kennedy Space Center. Of course, who can forget Apollo 13 as well.

We Can't Give Into Fear

You might ask yourself what the point is rattling off some relatively obscure facts about the ugly side of spaceflight. To put it bluntly, it's not a matter of when the next space accident involving loss of life takes place. Instead, it's a matter of when. Make no mistake, though. Space travel is considerably safer in 2023 thanks in large part to better microprocessors than in the days of Apollo.

Since the loss of Columbia, exactly zero human souls have been lost in space accidents. But looking to the future instead of the past for a moment, space races of the future will soon call for more spacecraft manufactured, more resources delegated, and tighter launch schedules implemented as the second great space race heats up in earnest. The way the public reacts when the proverbial cupcake hits the fan will ultimately determine the fate of all mankind in space.

Even in the days of Apollo, spaceflight didn't always have the rosiest reputation. There were those who, back then and even now, saw the space program as a frivolous waste of money better suited to fix problems here on Earth. When a third of all Space Shuttles launched were lost in accidents with 14 souls aboard, there is at least a shred of poignant truth in that line of thinking.

Space Shuttle Columbia 20th Anniversary
Photo: NASA
But to the people that still subscribe to the belief space travel isn't worth the time or effort. I challenge you to bare the agony of flying to Orlando to take a trip to the Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex. At the theme park's Space Shuttle Atlantis exhibit, you won't just find the huge Shuttle Atlantis orbiter in the flesh. You'll find dedicated memorials for not just all seven crew of Columbia but Challenger as well.

It's What They All Would Have Wanted

In this nearly 2,000-square-foot section of the Shuttle Atlantis exhibit, dedicated memorials to each person lost in shuttle accidents are flanked by bits and pieces recovered from the two Space Shuttle orbiter accidents. Each memorial contains little trinkets these brave souls carried with them before the accident. It brings a human side to both disasters, which sometimes gets flushed out in the spectacle of it all.

These men and women knew well beforehand anyone who crossed the Kármán line ran the risk of never returning home. It was a risk that, to a certain degree, they chose to accept in a showing of bravery and profound strength few in human history can match. Some day soon, another group of noble astronauts will experience an unfortunate event that tests whether mankind is fit to explore heavenly bodies beyond our own.

If you want an honest opinion, of course, we all dread the day that another tragedy of Columbia or Challenger's magnitude takes place. Not just because of the crushing loss of life, which should never, ever be taken lightly. But also because it will be the point space travel is the most vulnerable to scrutiny. As of 2022, there are 41 active NASA astronauts, six ESA astronauts, and an unclear number of Russian Cosmonauts and Chinese Taikonauts. All who signed up for the job have already made peace with the reality of the situation. Just like car accidents and plane crashes, accidents in space are inevitable. But yet, they never run away in fear.

Space Shuttle Challenger
Photo: NASA.com
Instead, these brave men and women show the most profound bravery in the face of dangers that'd make most grown adults sweat just thinking about it. If nothing else, had we given into the demands of a vocal minority and slashed space agency budgets even further, the deaths of all the people involved would have all been for nothing. With NASA and the ESA's joint Artemis program slated to bring humans back to the Moon for the first time in 50 years, the time for testing the human spirit is almost upon us.

The Bravest Souls Who Ever Lived

So I ask those out there who scoff at space travel as an unnecessary allocation of vital recourses to step back for a second. If only because the world we live in would be a whole lot different had the microprocessors designed for space travel never got off the drawing board. For one thing, I'd probably be out of a job. But beyond my meager existence, we don't think too many people would argue humanity does better overall when they have a presence in space.

For this reason, we give every astronaut of every variety and all the personnel who make their safe transit possible our deepest thanks. If we really want to honor the legacy of all these people, we'd better start ramping up the launch schedules. Hurry up, Elon, we're all waiting on you!
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