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Tesla Is Very Likely to Miss Its Model 3 Production Target for the End of Q1

The saga of the Model 3 production ramp up continues, and probably so do Elon Musk's nightmares. To say the commercial launch of the company's most important vehicle isn't going as planned would be a euphemism, and the situation seems to be dragging into the second quarter of the year as well.
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Photo: Tesla Inc.
Back in December 2017, Elon Musk decided to push back the Model 3 production target of 2,500 vehicles a week for the end of March 2018. Here we are, March 31, and with the official report from the Palo Alto company just a few days away, rumors have it the number of EVs coming out of the Fremont factory isn't even close to the one promised by the CEO.

According to Bloomberg - who claims to have obtained an email from Doug Field, Senior Vice President of Engineering - we're looking at an output of "over 200" units per day. The email is dated from last week and considering its rallying content, we can expect that number to have grown by now. But has it surpassed the 300 Model 3 vehicles per day mark? We'll find out soon enough, but it's hard to imagine.

The company is doing everything it can to meet this deadline as it knows all too well how crucial it is. A separate email obtained by the same publication says Model S and Model X production was halted on Friday, seemingly to divert all resources toward the assembly of the smaller, more affordable sedan. Electrek says company sources deny that was the reason, but did not provide an alternative one.

Even if Tesla somehow manages to hit the desired stride, it would only mean it won one battle, but not the way. The company would then have to reach its maximum output (given current production facilities) of 10,000 units a week, which would guarantee its 500,000 cars a year rollout promised a long time ago.

Right now, there are anywhere between 1,400 and 2,100 Model 3s leaving the factory each week, and we tend to believe the truth lies closer to the first of those two brackets. That was the case a week ago, but are seven days enough for Tesla to increase its production by 50 percent? We'll get an answer soon enough, but if they are, it would be nothing short of a miracle.

"The world is watching us very closely, to understand one thing: How many Model 3’s can Tesla build in a week?" Doug Field's email read. "This is a critical moment in Tesla’s history, and there are a number of reasons it’s so important. You should pick the one that hits you in the gut and makes you want to win."

Not a bad prep-talk, but it needs to be good considering what is asked of the people working there. "We set high goals at Tesla, but I know we can do this. If we keep climbing from 300 through the end of the week, it will be an incredible victory. Your friends and family will hear about it in the news." Hopefully, the employees will also hear about it when they check their bank accounts the next month.
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About the author: Vlad Mitrache
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"Boy meets car, boy loves car, boy gets journalism degree and starts job writing and editing at a car magazine" - 5/5. (Vlad Mitrache if he was a movie)
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