If history repeats itself, Spain might be more certain than any of the above countries. Although India, South Korea, and Indonesia have courted Tesla for years, things haven't moved past the negotiating table. On the contrary, when the Mexican government announced last year that it would host a Tesla gigafactory, things proved true. Spain is a similar case where local authorities never courted Tesla but are in advanced talks for a gigafactory nevertheless. This shows that Tesla wants this to happen, and most of the time, Tesla gets what it wants.
Although no official statement has been made, Spanish newspaper Cinco Dias reported that Tesla plans a 4.5 billion euros ($4.83 billion) investment for a gigafactory in Valencia. The rumors appear to be confirmed by a spokesman for Valencia's regional government, who told Reuters there were talks with an unidentified company about a "large automobile investment." They didn't offer details, citing the confidentiality of the negotiations, but confirmed that the talks were "very advanced."
Giga Berlin costs are still elevated, considering the high wages in Germany. A production facility in Spain could leverage the country's advantages to build more affordable EVs based on the Gen-3 architecture. These could not be produced at Giga Berlin, although Tesla is expected to introduce a second model in production soon. That could be the Project Highland Model 3, though, as it makes more sense financially for the German gigafactory.
Tesla invested around 5 billion euros ($5.4 billion) to build Giga Berlin, which took three years from groundbreaking to start of production. Tesla thinks it can do better than that and plans to prove it with Giga Mexico. If Spanish environmentalists are not as fierce as those in Germany, Giga Valencia could start making EVs as early as 2025. Tesla plans around 10-12 gigafactories worldwide to reach the goal of selling 20 million EVs per year by 2030.