If you're one of those people who regard Germany as one of the last bastions for the internal combustion engine in this relentless BEV onslaught, then things must be looking pretty bad for you right now.
Porsche looks to have lowered the guard way down below the knees and even though Mercedes-Benz and BMW look like they're still taking their sweet time, we all know it won't be long until they succumb as well.
Don't worry, though, things are likely to get much worse. According to a study conducted by business consultant McKinsey & Company, Europe's most important car-making nation could be on its way to becoming the world's biggest constructor of battery-powered vehicles, leaving the likes of China or the U.S, in its wake.
Considering the huge volumes of cheap cars that never see the outside of the Chinese border, that seems almost impossible to believe. And even though there are fewer and fewer people who doubt the future is electric (and battery-powered, if all the quiet discontinuations of hydrogen-related projects are to be considered), there is still a very natural opposition from the market to something that's bound to radically change the way things have been done for over a century.
So apart from the likes of Tesla and other companies that have never produced a fuel-burning engine in their lives, the rest of the automotive industry is going to suffer from a severe case of inertia when it comes to such a fundamental change in their activity.
Despite all this, McKinsey & Company found that Germany becoming the global leader in EV manufacturing is not a case of if, but when. According to the numbers and predictions, it could happen as soon as next year. “The market share of German carmakers in electric production worldwide will rise from 18% last year to 29% in 2024,” the report says. “With over 1.7 million EVs produced, Germany could become the world market leader – slightly ahead of China – as early as 2021.”
There are a few caveats to this, however, and the most obvious is the one that's been keeping most of us indoors for the last two months or so. Nobody can predict all the implications, which makes any forecast seem a lot more relative than it normally would.
And then there's the constant expansion of Tesla, with one of its future Gigafactories set to open right next to Berlin no less. It might take a while, but with three of its massive plants running in a few years and the rest of the U.S. carmakers making an effort as well, it's not hard to imagine Germany falling behind. However, the market appears to be more fluid than ever so it's kind of exciting to think where we'll be four years from now.
Don't worry, though, things are likely to get much worse. According to a study conducted by business consultant McKinsey & Company, Europe's most important car-making nation could be on its way to becoming the world's biggest constructor of battery-powered vehicles, leaving the likes of China or the U.S, in its wake.
Considering the huge volumes of cheap cars that never see the outside of the Chinese border, that seems almost impossible to believe. And even though there are fewer and fewer people who doubt the future is electric (and battery-powered, if all the quiet discontinuations of hydrogen-related projects are to be considered), there is still a very natural opposition from the market to something that's bound to radically change the way things have been done for over a century.
So apart from the likes of Tesla and other companies that have never produced a fuel-burning engine in their lives, the rest of the automotive industry is going to suffer from a severe case of inertia when it comes to such a fundamental change in their activity.
Despite all this, McKinsey & Company found that Germany becoming the global leader in EV manufacturing is not a case of if, but when. According to the numbers and predictions, it could happen as soon as next year. “The market share of German carmakers in electric production worldwide will rise from 18% last year to 29% in 2024,” the report says. “With over 1.7 million EVs produced, Germany could become the world market leader – slightly ahead of China – as early as 2021.”
There are a few caveats to this, however, and the most obvious is the one that's been keeping most of us indoors for the last two months or so. Nobody can predict all the implications, which makes any forecast seem a lot more relative than it normally would.
And then there's the constant expansion of Tesla, with one of its future Gigafactories set to open right next to Berlin no less. It might take a while, but with three of its massive plants running in a few years and the rest of the U.S. carmakers making an effort as well, it's not hard to imagine Germany falling behind. However, the market appears to be more fluid than ever so it's kind of exciting to think where we'll be four years from now.
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