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Musk Thinks Tesla Could Build Up to 200,000 Model 3s by the End of 2017

If your Model 3 reservation number is 199,999, then you might get your new electric vehicle by the end of next year if Mr. Elon Musk is to be believed. The thing is, there aren't any solid reasons to offer him your trust, and we don't need to look any further than what happened with the Model X to see why.
Tesla Model 3 7 photos
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You might argue that the Model X was a much more intricately built car than the Model 3, and you would be right. The new compact sedan is designed to be easily manufactured, but it still comes with six to seven thousand unique parts, so it's not exactly your average Lego toy. “The Model 3 is Tesla’s first car that is designed to be easy to make,” says Musk, but we all know that what he finds to be easy, others might consider impossible.

To achieve the daunting task of beginning Model 3 production on July 1, 2017, Tesla has to focus on its suppliers. After the falcon doors fiasco that pushed the Model X launch back for so long, Musk will be that more wary of how important a good relationship with the suppliers is. An announcement made today says that two top-level managers in charge of production and manufacturing are leaving the company, suggesting a personnel revamping might also be on the cards.

No matter how bad the odds might seem at this moment, Musk is confident his company will be able to deliver between 100,000 and 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That's a big margin for error he's taking there, and one that shouldn't really help those who signed up for a Model 3 sleep any sounder.

That's the kind of estimate you would expect from somebody who isn't basing their forecast on numbers and cold facts, but on an impression. Sadly, this makes Musk's statement that a person ordering a Model 3 now might get it by the end of 2018 a lot less relevant.


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