Mercedes Could Be in Big Trouble for the Rest of the 2022 f1 Season

The Silver Arrows were defeated by the dominating Ferraris. They were sitting back in fifth and sixth before the Red Bull cars retired. From a performance and pace standpoint, Mercedes was nowhere near victory contention.

During testing, everybody was skeptical by saying that Mercedes was sandbagging (as they used to do in the past seasons), but it turns out that they are in indeed in trouble. As a fun fact, this was the worst season-opening qualifying session for the German team since 2011. That's 11 years. Following the retirement of the Red Bull drivers, Lewis Hamilton and George Russell were very fortunate to finish in third and fourth.

The biggest problem for Mercedes is porpoising, which is an old phenomenon that the new ground-effect era cars brought back from the '80s. To understand it easier, porpoising occurs when these new cars are reaching maximum speeds and aerodynamic loads as they are sucked closer to the ground.

However, if the floor gets too down for the airflow, the underfloor arrow breaks down and much of the downforce is lost. This phenomenon releases the car back up, so the ride height increases again and allows this cycle to repeat very fast. That is the reason you see the Mercedes bouncing up and down like a lowrider. Quite simple, right?

To maximize performance is crucial for these "New Era" cars to run as low as possible. But the Silver Arrows cars can't do it as effectively as the other team's cars. In addition, the W13 has a terrible rear end through all the slow and medium-speed corners. As a result, the rear tires are getting hotter, meaning more significant degradation. All these problems could lead to about 0,3-0,4 seconds per lap, so imagine how much time is lost in a 60-lap race.

"It's affecting the tires quite a lot because every braking zone you are bouncing into the corner and the rears are just skipping under braking because the car is so unsettled," said Mercedes F1 Team driver George Russell. "We know if we unlock the performance it's going to benefit everything. It will help the tires, it's going to help the brakes, we're gonna find more grip from it."

It appears this problem is a matter of weeks rather than an overnight transformation. Team manager Toto Wolff said that the Bahrain Grand Prix was more of a test for the Silver Arrows to understand exactly where the gaps lie to the top teams, Ferrari and Red Bull. This is what he had to declare: "More than really bringing parts, it's an understanding of how we can unleash the performance that we believe to be in the car, or what we hope to be in the car, before throwing bits at it in terms of performance."

The biggest challenge is represented by the fact that porpoising can't be replicated in the simulator or the wind tunnel. So the next few Grands Prix will still be test sessions for them.

Another problem Formula One fans already pointed out is the engine. The three teams using Mercedes powertrain (McLaren, Aston Martin and Williams) were miserable in Bahrain. However, we need more races to form an accurate idea about the new engines from Germany.

For all the teams, the root of all evil is the bouncing problem. The W13 is still a very competitive car compared to the midfield, so if Mercedes could resolve the porpoising issue as fast as possible, they will be back in contention for the title.