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Lorenzo's Gamble

Yesterday's announcement about Yamaha parting ways with the reigning Jorge Lorenzo was no surprise, as the avalanche of hints and paddock whispers transformed the whole thing into a "public secret."
However, now that all things are said and done, I can't help thinking about how much of a bet Lorenzo's move is, in fact. He made a radical decision, even before he signed the Ducati contract, and the only way he can retain his aura is to win championships.

If anything, I'd say JL99 never felt that he was truly at home at Yamaha, despite having already spent more than eight seasons on the Iwata machine. In fact, Yamaha was the only team Lorenzo had since he stepped up to MotoGP. Still, it looks like his three world titles in the premier class, multiple wins, podiums and poles were not enough to bring him anywhere near the fame of Valentino Rossi.

I can't tell how bitter the enmity between the two is. This is a thing only they and possibly their closest friends know, but it appears that Lorenzo never managed to get out of Rossi's shadow, no matter what he did. Some say that he simply tried to copy the Doctor with his special-color liveries and other aspects, but it was his pride that always made things go worse than expected.

The fact is that seeing Lorenzo leaving Yamaha was rather unfathomable, say, halfway through the 2015 season. Teammates and rivals, the two saw to their own matters and let the bikes do the talking. However, the Sepang incident between Rossi and Marquez has been a turning point for Lorenzo, too, and also for his relationship with Yamaha.

It's difficult to say what pushed Lorenzo into the VR46-MM93 thing, but it's obvious that he would have been better off without getting involved in that. Lorenzo could have played it cool and see to his own championship, but instead, he decided to give Rossi a thumb down, walked off the podium, and later, trying to mingle in Rossi's appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.

Yamaha was not at all happy with Lorenzo openly battling Rossi off the track. For starters, it was the fact that they had a factory Yamaha rider speaking against another factory Yamaha rider, and that looked bad for everybody.

Then, I'm sure they didn't take kind of Lorenzo showing his teeth at Rossi. Whether we like it or not, Rossi is probably the biggest name in motorcycle racing and the most valuable rider for BOTH Yamaha and Dorna.

The fact that Dorna and the FIM penalized Rossi and arguably deprived him of a chance to win his tenth title somehow went hand in hand with Yamaha's reluctance to celebrate Lorenzo's 2015 world title, and this only made things worse. Cue Rossi's early contract deal and not-always-smooth teasing targeting Lorenzo and his alleged move to Ducati, and you've got the perfect tensioned atmosphere ripe for radical changes.

A chance to make history and beat Rossi at his own game

Lorenzo's move at Ducati does not come with any insurance as to what the future might bring. Ducati changed massively since the gloomy days that saw so many riders fail. The list of those "defeated" by the old Ducati bikes includes Nicky Hayden, Andrea Dovizioso, Cal Crutchlow, Andrea Iannone, and Rossi himself.

The new Desmosedici GP machine looks way more competitive these days, with constant chances for podiums and, with an "alien" at the helm, maybe better odds for winning. Still, even though the Ducati machine improved significantly, it offers no guarantee that it will suit Lorenzo's style.

JL99 became World Champion with Gigi Dall'Igna twice in the 250cc class, so we can estimate that the two will find ways to tailor the Desmosedici GP so that it fits the Spaniard. And with Audi's money and support, Ducati is more than willing to walk that extra mile to secure better chances of winning. Beating Yamaha and Honda once more, taking revenge, paying their debts, you call it whatever you like.

The big bet is, of course, putting Lorenzo on the first step of the MotoGP podium, marking Ducati's return at the front of the pack with claims to be made. If Ducati can have Lorenzo winning more races again, there is maybe a chance to win a MotoGP title, and THIS is the one goal for which Borgo Panigale looks like they are willing to do anything.

If Lorenzo wins a championship with the Desmosedici GP (possibly in 2018, because it's hard to believe he will be that good in his first year with the Italian machine), both he and Ducati would have proven everything there was to prove. To Rossi, to Yamaha, to their fans and to the fans of Lorenzo, too. Winning a MotoGP championship is the only way Lorenzo's "alien aura" can shine brightly from now on, and I hope he understands this fully.

If he joins the ranks of those who can't make it to the top astride a Ducati bike, things will not look good. It's unlikely that Yamaha will offer him another factory seat, even after Rossi retires

Being undoubtedly one of the best riders in the championship with or without Ducati glory, Lorenzo could find a place in a factory team quite easily. I honestly don't agree with those who say that a failure at Ducati means that he is through.

He may not be a spectacular rider as Rossi is, or as crazy and even reckless, sometimes, like Marquez, but Lorenzo can win races, and this is often all a team needs, provided, of course, that he can refrain from getting involved in battles that are neither his or his team's.

We'll have to wait for Barcelona to find out who will be Lorenzo's teammate at Ducati, according to Mr. Dall'Igna. Something tells us it's Dovizioso who stays, but this is a subject for another piece on MotoGP rumors and speculations.

What matters is that Ducati and Lorenzo got themselves in a predicament that leaves little room for mistakes, and winning a title now looks like the only option. Game on, again?
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