On April 29, a Long March 5B rocket was launched from China, carrying a module that will serve as living quarters on the country’s new space station. Now that it dropped its payload, the core of the rocket is falling uncontrollably and will be making its re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere this weekend.
What this means is that you should probably look up. The U.S. Space Command, which tracks space debris, notes that chances of people getting hit by rocket debris are slim, but there’s still a chance that it might land on solid ground. Researchers agree: debris from the decaying 18-ton core will either drop into the ocean or on land, which could very well be populated.
Yet, as the above image from Aerospace Corporation shows, estimates indicate that the area over which debris will scatter over is significant. Perhaps more importantly, it is impossible to predict accurately: the core, which is now traveling at some 18,000 miles an hour (28,968 kph) is angled, so a more precise trajectory is impossible to predict until a few hours before it actually reenters the atmosphere.
Of course, whatever debris will enter the atmosphere will probably catch on fire, but researchers and trackers expect larger pieces made of metal to reach the surface. “We're hopeful that it will land in a place where it won't harm anyone,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin says, as cited by the BBC. “Hopefully in the ocean, or someplace like that.”
For the time being, there are no plans to shoot down the pieces of debris. And for a good cause, as already stated: no one knows where they will fall and when.
Jonathan McDowell from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, U.S., believes that this uncontrolled reentry, the second from China in as many years, is proof of “negligence” on its part. Even with the “less likely” odd of rocket debris falling in populated areas, there are risks with letting such a large object reenter the atmosphere uncontrolled.
Current estimates have it that the core of Long March 5B will reenter the atmosphere between May 8 and May 10, with debris possibly scattering over an area from Sydney to New York, Beijing to Rio de Janeiro.
Yet, as the above image from Aerospace Corporation shows, estimates indicate that the area over which debris will scatter over is significant. Perhaps more importantly, it is impossible to predict accurately: the core, which is now traveling at some 18,000 miles an hour (28,968 kph) is angled, so a more precise trajectory is impossible to predict until a few hours before it actually reenters the atmosphere.
Of course, whatever debris will enter the atmosphere will probably catch on fire, but researchers and trackers expect larger pieces made of metal to reach the surface. “We're hopeful that it will land in a place where it won't harm anyone,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin says, as cited by the BBC. “Hopefully in the ocean, or someplace like that.”
For the time being, there are no plans to shoot down the pieces of debris. And for a good cause, as already stated: no one knows where they will fall and when.
Jonathan McDowell from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, U.S., believes that this uncontrolled reentry, the second from China in as many years, is proof of “negligence” on its part. Even with the “less likely” odd of rocket debris falling in populated areas, there are risks with letting such a large object reenter the atmosphere uncontrolled.
Current estimates have it that the core of Long March 5B will reenter the atmosphere between May 8 and May 10, with debris possibly scattering over an area from Sydney to New York, Beijing to Rio de Janeiro.
Our latest prediction for CZ-5B rocket body reentry is:
— The Aerospace Corporation (@AerospaceCorp) May 6, 2021
????09 May 2021 03:43 UTC ± 16 hours
Reentry will be along one of the ground tracks shown here. It is still too early to determine a meaningful debris footprint. Follow this page for updates: https://t.co/p2AU9zE3y2 pic.twitter.com/MgzRAOTJnk