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JD Power Forecasts a 55 Percent Market Growth in China by 2015

Sales of passenger vehicles in China, including passenger cars, SUVs and minivans, are expected to rise from 8.7 million units in 2009 to 13.55 million units in 2015. This means an increase of more than 55 percent, according to JD Power, a leading industry forecaster.

The report issued by JD Power examines the future of the automotive industry in China and the challenges that automakers face in one of the world’s fastest-growing auto markets. Despite the general optimistic view of China's car market, JD Power warns that the government stimulus in 2009, when government stimulus and massive bank lending was the equivalent of one-third of China’s GDP, cannot continue indefinitely.

China’s rapid growth makes the automotive market highly attractive and almost irresistible to any automaker,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of global automotive operations for J.D. Power and Associates, quoted by just-auto.com. “However, for many brands, achieving their profit aspirations in China in the coming years will be far more challenging,” he added. JD Power highlights a number of serious market and structural obstacles that automakers must overcome in China. These include fierce competition and the closing of the current gap between foreign automakers and Chinese companies.

Among the 13.55 million passenger vehicles that are projected to be sold in China by 2015, approximately 57 percent will be sold in the subcompact and compact car segments, JD Power says. The market data firm estimates there will be more than 125 vehicle models for consumers to choose from in these two segments alone.

Total factory production capacity for passenger vehicles in China is expected to reach 19.6m units by 2015.
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