Photo: GM
The chip crunch is a problem that many people believe will persist until at least 2023, but on the other hand, it looks like some industries might recover earlier than others.
New research published by Counterpoint and covering mostly the smartphone sector predicts that the global semiconductor shortage is expected to ease substantially in the second half of the year.
The analysis is based on the currently demand-supply ratio for specific components used on smartphones, with Counterpoint claiming that it’s already seeing evidence that the industry has embarked on a slow recovery that could gain more pace in the second half of the year, possibly in Q3 or Q4.
The main catalysts of this surprising recovery are the dropping demand and the improving inventories. The latter is obviously tied to the first, as chipmakers have additional time to improve semiconductor inventories because the number of orders has declined as well.
While the analysis concerns mostly the phone sector, it could be good news for automakers as well. Some of the components, including older-generation 4G processors and 5G-related chipsets, are also being used on cars, so certain inventories could improve in the automotive business as well.
Previously, industry analysts anticipated a slow recovery for carmakers in the second half of the year as well, and right now, it looks like we’re finally approaching this highly anticipated moment.
On the other hand, it doesn’t look like the worst is already history.
Carmakers like Volkswagen and BMW aren’t necessarily very optimistic in the short term, as they believe the global chip crunch wouldn’t be over until at least 2023. Some have come up with even gloomier forecasts, anticipating a chip struggle that would continue until 2024.
At the moment, however, the chip inventory in the automotive world remains very constrained. The production is, therefore, yet to return to pre-2020 levels, so the H2 2022 recovery is currently just a moment that nobody is even willing to think of.
The analysis is based on the currently demand-supply ratio for specific components used on smartphones, with Counterpoint claiming that it’s already seeing evidence that the industry has embarked on a slow recovery that could gain more pace in the second half of the year, possibly in Q3 or Q4.
The main catalysts of this surprising recovery are the dropping demand and the improving inventories. The latter is obviously tied to the first, as chipmakers have additional time to improve semiconductor inventories because the number of orders has declined as well.
While the analysis concerns mostly the phone sector, it could be good news for automakers as well. Some of the components, including older-generation 4G processors and 5G-related chipsets, are also being used on cars, so certain inventories could improve in the automotive business as well.
Previously, industry analysts anticipated a slow recovery for carmakers in the second half of the year as well, and right now, it looks like we’re finally approaching this highly anticipated moment.
On the other hand, it doesn’t look like the worst is already history.
Carmakers like Volkswagen and BMW aren’t necessarily very optimistic in the short term, as they believe the global chip crunch wouldn’t be over until at least 2023. Some have come up with even gloomier forecasts, anticipating a chip struggle that would continue until 2024.
At the moment, however, the chip inventory in the automotive world remains very constrained. The production is, therefore, yet to return to pre-2020 levels, so the H2 2022 recovery is currently just a moment that nobody is even willing to think of.
Google News