Photo: Joe Rogan / Facebook (modified)
Love him or hate him - and these seem to be the two reactions the Tesla CEO elicits in people with very few feeling indifferent about him - Elon does make a valid point here. But so do those who disagree. Let's dig in.
The statement came in one of Musk's many tweets (anyone surprised about that?), this particular one replying to another user who said, "Lucid delivered the first 500 mile EV. Tesla will be the first to mass-produce one." That would probably sound like concealed praise to you or me, but Musk seems to have taken it in a different vein.
"We could’ve made a 600 mile Model S 12 months ago," he said, "but that would’ve made the product worse imo, as 99.9% of time you’d be carrying unneeded battery mass, which makes acceleration, handling & efficiency worse. Even our 400+ mile range car is more than almost anyone will use."
There are several ways in which you can interpret this tweet. One is that Elon lost the race to 500 miles of range to Lucid, so he's now downplaying the importance of that achievement while highlighting the one area where the Model S is superior to the Air - performance. However, not everybody wants to buy a large, comfy, electric sedan to drag race it, and even then, the Lucid product is not particularly slow. Just slower than the Plaid.
On the other hand, this might be Musk preparing the way for a slight adjustment to the Cybertruck's promised maximum range. Right now, the electric truck is advertised with a range of "up to 500 miles," but after this comment, don't be surprised if it'll drop to 400 miles or so. That would still be better than the current competition from Ford, GM, or Rivian, but it would mark another undelivered promise for Tesla. Don't think it could happen? Well, remember what happened to the Model S Plaid+, which Musk deemed to have unnecessarily high levels of performance, and then think again.
Finally, Musk could simply be pointing out a well-known truth about EVs, which is that piling on the batteries to increase range isn't sustainable as it also increases mass. Optimum range is achieved by striking a balance between battery size and mass, with aerodynamics and a few other factors thrown in the mix as well.
Of course, all this applies to the battery technology that's currently available. Once energy density increases (either by making batteries smaller and lighter or by being able to cram more energy into them), so do the rules of the game, but there's no point talking about something that doesn't exist yet.
Musk argues there is no point in dragging a large battery unit around if you're only going to use half of it on each trip. That makes perfect sense, but there's a caveat - not everybody lives in California. Or Texas, for that matter. Some people use their EVs in cold climates, drive up the mountains, or face strong winds - all factors that severely debilitate the official maximum range rating, sometimes even cutting it in half. To make matters worse, these areas usually don't have that many Supercharger locations either, so owning an EV in those parts can become quite adventurous.
People living in dense urban areas would gladly trade maximum range for a much quicker recharge (say, 300 miles and a ten-minute full refill), but for those driving in cold weather and/or having to cover longer distances at higher highway speeds, even the 400 on-paper miles turns out to be pretty stress-inducing.
So, while there's still an argument to be had, it seems like there are plenty of people - EV owners, I should add - who disagree with Musk and welcome cars with maximum ranges of 500 miles or more, even if that means sacrificing a bit of performance. Provided Lucid Motors manage to make the jump from small- to big-time carmaker, the argument becomes void as there will be options on the market for everyone. It's not like we didn't have something similar with ICE cars before: you bought a V8 for performance and a small diesel engine for efficiency and you didn't expect great mileage from the former or spine-ripping performance from the latter.
"We could’ve made a 600 mile Model S 12 months ago," he said, "but that would’ve made the product worse imo, as 99.9% of time you’d be carrying unneeded battery mass, which makes acceleration, handling & efficiency worse. Even our 400+ mile range car is more than almost anyone will use."
There are several ways in which you can interpret this tweet. One is that Elon lost the race to 500 miles of range to Lucid, so he's now downplaying the importance of that achievement while highlighting the one area where the Model S is superior to the Air - performance. However, not everybody wants to buy a large, comfy, electric sedan to drag race it, and even then, the Lucid product is not particularly slow. Just slower than the Plaid.
On the other hand, this might be Musk preparing the way for a slight adjustment to the Cybertruck's promised maximum range. Right now, the electric truck is advertised with a range of "up to 500 miles," but after this comment, don't be surprised if it'll drop to 400 miles or so. That would still be better than the current competition from Ford, GM, or Rivian, but it would mark another undelivered promise for Tesla. Don't think it could happen? Well, remember what happened to the Model S Plaid+, which Musk deemed to have unnecessarily high levels of performance, and then think again.
Finally, Musk could simply be pointing out a well-known truth about EVs, which is that piling on the batteries to increase range isn't sustainable as it also increases mass. Optimum range is achieved by striking a balance between battery size and mass, with aerodynamics and a few other factors thrown in the mix as well.
Of course, all this applies to the battery technology that's currently available. Once energy density increases (either by making batteries smaller and lighter or by being able to cram more energy into them), so do the rules of the game, but there's no point talking about something that doesn't exist yet.
Musk argues there is no point in dragging a large battery unit around if you're only going to use half of it on each trip. That makes perfect sense, but there's a caveat - not everybody lives in California. Or Texas, for that matter. Some people use their EVs in cold climates, drive up the mountains, or face strong winds - all factors that severely debilitate the official maximum range rating, sometimes even cutting it in half. To make matters worse, these areas usually don't have that many Supercharger locations either, so owning an EV in those parts can become quite adventurous.
People living in dense urban areas would gladly trade maximum range for a much quicker recharge (say, 300 miles and a ten-minute full refill), but for those driving in cold weather and/or having to cover longer distances at higher highway speeds, even the 400 on-paper miles turns out to be pretty stress-inducing.
So, while there's still an argument to be had, it seems like there are plenty of people - EV owners, I should add - who disagree with Musk and welcome cars with maximum ranges of 500 miles or more, even if that means sacrificing a bit of performance. Provided Lucid Motors manage to make the jump from small- to big-time carmaker, the argument becomes void as there will be options on the market for everyone. It's not like we didn't have something similar with ICE cars before: you bought a V8 for performance and a small diesel engine for efficiency and you didn't expect great mileage from the former or spine-ripping performance from the latter.
We could’ve made a 600 mile Model S 12 months ago, but that would’ve made the product worse imo, as 99.9% of time you’d be carrying unneeded battery mass, which makes acceleration, handling & efficiency worse. Even our 400+ mile range car is more than almost anyone will use.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 2, 2022
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