Elon Musk Says All ICE Cars Will Not Be Replaced by EVs for at Least 30 Years

Musk explained that the timeline he presented is a realistic view of a best-case scenario. In other words, it means that it will actually take more than 40 years to replace all internal combustion-engined vehicles on the road today with EVs. More likely, the replacement will need more time.

If all new vehicles sold in the world were electric, it would take 20 years at a rate of 100 million vehicles per year to replace the existing two billion vehicles currently on the roads. Since that is not going to happen tomorrow, and many drivers will not change their cars just to have an electric model, it will take more than 30 years to replace all conventional cars with EVs.

It is thus more likely that the time span for replacing most of the internal-combustion-engined vehicles in the world will exceed 40 years. We think that is because many vehicles will continue to be used as long as their owners will be able to buy fuel and the cars will be allowed on public roads. Let us think about collectors, who will also hold on to their prized models.

At this point, it is important to highlight that not all automakers have pledged to stop making internal combustion engines after 2035, but they just will not sell those vehicles in Europe. Since those automakers are from the Old Continent, you may expect them to end internal combustion engine production entirely, but we do not think that is the case.

Let us remember cars that had engines that worked with carburetors. You thought they would become a relic after fuel injection became mainstream, right? Well, some countries had them made for many years after the U.S. and the European Union stopped letting automakers sell them in those markets.

We believe the same thing will happen with internal-combustion-engined vehicles when many automakers will stop selling them in the European Union and the UK. These engines will live on in other markets, and the last to be sold is further away than we could imagine at the moment.

You can watch Elon's speech in the video below. He starts just after the 45-minute mark. Do not worry, we already embedded the video to start just as Elon proceeds to the stage.