The Chinese space station is under construction in orbit, and as such it requires stuff to be transported into space to continue building it. A Chinese rocket, known as Long March 5B, launched on the 24th of July, to do just that. After successfully carrying a lab module to China’s Tiangong space station, it so happens that a hulking pile of debris, represented by the core stage of the rocket, is now falling towards our little blue planet.
The rocket is not at its first launch, as this model has been used twice before, since 2020. The main core of the rocket, which is 100 feet (30 meters) and weighs about 45,000 pounds (22 tons) is now in low Earth orbit, making its way towards a planetary re-entry. This does not mean you should make your way to the nearest underground shelter, as it is somewhat of a standard procedure, with the space junk expected to disintegrate in the atmosphere. When I say standard procedure, this means that, unlike SpaceX’s Falcon rockets, which come down for vertical landings, the Long March 5B is brought down in uncontrolled descents and this outcome is expected, albeit slightly dangerous.
However, a large number of bits and pieces will survive at least the first stage of the re-entry, about 10,000 to 18,000 pounds (4,500 to 8,200 kg) of them, according to The Aerospace Corporation's Center for Orbital Re-entry and Debris Studies. This might sound alarming, but Ted Muelhaupt, a consultant with The Aerospace Corporation's Corporate Chief Engineer’s Office, gave a reassuring take during a discussion about the Long March 5B, which was live-streamed on Twitter. He said that there is about 99.5% chance nothing will happen and he even jokingly stated on the matter that he would run outside with a camera to film the visually spectacular event.
The exact area that would be affected is currently unknown, since experts will only be able to tell for sure just a few hours before impact, but speculation is ongoing about various possible impact sites, as one could easily expect when the public at large finds out about such a big event. The latest tracking data reports that the re-entry will occur on Sunday, around 00:24 GMT plus/minus 16 hours.
This is not the first time the same thing happened with the Chinese rocket, as two other Long March 5B enabled missions caused the same kind of situation. In May 2020, the debris field covered a part of West Africa and in another uncontrolled re-entry in May 2021, the debris landed in the Indian Ocean. While the risk of such events causing human casualties is fairly low, we should still strive to do our utmost to prevent a similar scenario, especially considering we have the technology needed.
However, a large number of bits and pieces will survive at least the first stage of the re-entry, about 10,000 to 18,000 pounds (4,500 to 8,200 kg) of them, according to The Aerospace Corporation's Center for Orbital Re-entry and Debris Studies. This might sound alarming, but Ted Muelhaupt, a consultant with The Aerospace Corporation's Corporate Chief Engineer’s Office, gave a reassuring take during a discussion about the Long March 5B, which was live-streamed on Twitter. He said that there is about 99.5% chance nothing will happen and he even jokingly stated on the matter that he would run outside with a camera to film the visually spectacular event.
The exact area that would be affected is currently unknown, since experts will only be able to tell for sure just a few hours before impact, but speculation is ongoing about various possible impact sites, as one could easily expect when the public at large finds out about such a big event. The latest tracking data reports that the re-entry will occur on Sunday, around 00:24 GMT plus/minus 16 hours.
This is not the first time the same thing happened with the Chinese rocket, as two other Long March 5B enabled missions caused the same kind of situation. In May 2020, the debris field covered a part of West Africa and in another uncontrolled re-entry in May 2021, the debris landed in the Indian Ocean. While the risk of such events causing human casualties is fairly low, we should still strive to do our utmost to prevent a similar scenario, especially considering we have the technology needed.