Photo: YouTube screenshot
Some people feel as though Elon Musk is to go-to guy when it comes to autonomous driving because, after all, Tesla is leading that race, and he is the all-knowing CEO of Tesla Motors.
Well, long before there was even a Tesla to begin with, there was a German company that used to supply parts and even various complete solutions to pretty much every carmaker on the globe. That company is called Bosch and, if you own a car, it's very likely at least a few of its parts bear this brand name on their label.
However, Bosch is much more than just a parts supplier. The company invests heavily in research and development and even used to hold what it called "Bosch Technology Days," where it invited journalists from all over the world and presented some of the things it was working on that weren't quite ready to make the jump to production cars.
It was roughly ten years ago that Bosch had a BMW 3 Series Touring fitted with what looked like a weird antenna on top (didn't know what a LiDAR sensor was back then) that could drive itself. The car had a large display that showed how it perceived the world and, guess what, it looked very much like what you see in all the Autopilot FSD videos right now.
With ten more years of development since then, Bosch must be ready to roll out the technology on the market, right? Well, according to the company's Chief Technical Officer, Michael Bolle, we'll have to wait a few more years before Level 4 and 5 autonomy will be possible.
Speaking in a streamed news conference, Bolle delivered his verdict. "In L4 and L5, the industry has realized that the complexity of the automation task, for example for a robotaxi in a highly dense urban environment, is significantly more complex than we imagined even 5 years ago", he says, quoted by Spectrum IEEE editor Evan Ackerman on Twitter. “We think fully autonomous driving in robotaxis in megacities will not be visible in the first half of this century, maybe in the second half.”
Wait, so no sooner than 2050? Further inquiries clarified the fact that Bolle meant "decade" instead of "century", so the timeline can be pulled back by 25 years to 2025. Even so, that's still a lot more than what Elon Musk is preaching.
The Tesla CEO has promised full-scale self-driving capabilities on several occasions and failed to deliver so far. Sure, people may argue the Autopilot is the most advanced system on the market, and there's no denying the wealth of information Tesla is sitting on thanks to the billions of miles the owners have driven using Autopilot. Still, as Bolle says, the complexity of the project shouldn't be taken lightly as the implications are also immense.
It's up to anyone to choose whose timeline they believe more but be sure your choice is made using your brain, not your heart. In other words, choose what you believe to be true, not what you want to be true.
However, Bosch is much more than just a parts supplier. The company invests heavily in research and development and even used to hold what it called "Bosch Technology Days," where it invited journalists from all over the world and presented some of the things it was working on that weren't quite ready to make the jump to production cars.
It was roughly ten years ago that Bosch had a BMW 3 Series Touring fitted with what looked like a weird antenna on top (didn't know what a LiDAR sensor was back then) that could drive itself. The car had a large display that showed how it perceived the world and, guess what, it looked very much like what you see in all the Autopilot FSD videos right now.
With ten more years of development since then, Bosch must be ready to roll out the technology on the market, right? Well, according to the company's Chief Technical Officer, Michael Bolle, we'll have to wait a few more years before Level 4 and 5 autonomy will be possible.
Speaking in a streamed news conference, Bolle delivered his verdict. "In L4 and L5, the industry has realized that the complexity of the automation task, for example for a robotaxi in a highly dense urban environment, is significantly more complex than we imagined even 5 years ago", he says, quoted by Spectrum IEEE editor Evan Ackerman on Twitter. “We think fully autonomous driving in robotaxis in megacities will not be visible in the first half of this century, maybe in the second half.”
Wait, so no sooner than 2050? Further inquiries clarified the fact that Bolle meant "decade" instead of "century", so the timeline can be pulled back by 25 years to 2025. Even so, that's still a lot more than what Elon Musk is preaching.
The Tesla CEO has promised full-scale self-driving capabilities on several occasions and failed to deliver so far. Sure, people may argue the Autopilot is the most advanced system on the market, and there's no denying the wealth of information Tesla is sitting on thanks to the billions of miles the owners have driven using Autopilot. Still, as Bolle says, the complexity of the project shouldn't be taken lightly as the implications are also immense.
It's up to anyone to choose whose timeline they believe more but be sure your choice is made using your brain, not your heart. In other words, choose what you believe to be true, not what you want to be true.
Quote from Michael Bolle, Bosch CTO:
— Evan Ackerman (@BotJunkie) January 11, 2021
"In L4 and L5, the industry has realized that the complexity of the automation task, for example for a robotaxi in a highly dense urban environment, is significantly more complex than we imagined even 5 years ago." (1/2)
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