When Aptera disclosed that it would try to raise more than $20 million by gamifying the process, it also pointed out its investment page. Apart from the leaderboard that reveals daily information on how many people have invested more than $10,000 in the company (106) and how much money they have already put in the company ($1.32 million), the page also brings an interesting graphic. It discloses how many solar trikes Aptera thinks it can sell per year.
Considering the numbers the graphic presents, I suspect it is an estimate for the American market, but there is nothing there confirming this. I’ll work with them as if that were the case because this is the scenario in which they make more sense.
According to Aptera, it can sell 600,000 solar trikes per year because it appeals to motorcycle and three-wheeler buyers (120,000 units per year), two-passenger car drivers (140,000), efficient commuters (140,000), energy-saving advocates (80,000), and environmental advocates (120,000). The company expected to deliver 10,000 units of the trike in 2023, when it created the page. It currently says it would be happy if the first units were produced in 2024, but this is not what this story wants to discuss. I am more interested in the estimates Aptera did.
Bikerestart states that motorcycle sales in the U.S. were 441,000 in 2021 and probably around 430,000 in 2022. Although they are declining, Americans bought an average of 455,000 motorcycles annually over the last ten years. I did not find any reliable information source on three-wheelers, but the number is certainly lower than that for motorcycles. Aptera believes an expressive fraction of people shopping for these vehicles could choose its solar trike instead. If we were to consider only motorcycles, that would be 26.4% or more than a quarter of motorcycle customers per year.
Photo: Aptera
Aptera then talks about two-passenger car drivers. The only vehicles that fit this description that I can think of are smart fortwo units (which are no longer for sale in the U.S.), pickup trucks, roadsters such as the Mazda X-5, and coupes such as the Chevrolet Corvette or the Audi R8. It is such a broad universe that anything with two seats could fit, so I wonder how Aptera figured out 140,000 of these buyers could prefer its solar trike.
The calculation is even more mysterious when it involves efficient commuters, energy-saving advocates, and environmental advocates. Where did the company obtain the data showing how many of these folks live in the U.S.? How did it calculate the percentage of these people who would decide to buy an Aptera, and how did it validate these numbers? At this point, it seems clear that this is more wishful thinking than a proper estimate.
The truth is that the Aptera is an entirely new product breaking ground for a market segment that people have never heard about: solar trikes. To be sure about how many of these vehicles it can sell per year, it is probably more important to learn how much these trikes will cost. Efficient commuters will not spend $50,000 on a two-seater. On the other hand, plenty of people would buy one if it cost $10,000 – even gas-guzzler fans. Everyone is after a real bargain.
Photo: Aptera
Supposing it will be in between these two prices ($30,000), how many people would choose an Aptera instead of a Toyota RAV4 (which starts at $27,975) or a 2023 Prius ($27,450)? None of these vehicles charge from the sun or are as energy-efficient as the Aptera, but they carry five people. This may be crucial for anyone spending that kind of money, unless you are really into Aptera’s proposition – and have the cash necessary to join the queue.
Being a commercial success has more to do with the price tag than with what the company promises to do for the environment or the future of the planet. Without knowing how much the startup plans to charge for each of its trike’s derivatives, we are pretty much in the dark, and any estimate on demand is tough to believe.
Curiously, when I started writing this article, 96 people joined Aptera’s crowdfunding game, raising $1.2 million in the process. When I finished it one day later, the number had increased to 106 people, and the raised sum was $1.32 million. These ten more people put $120,000 more into the company. Surprisingly, the leader is now R.P., who put only $10,500 into the game, but had already invested $1,000,640.
At this pace, Aptera is adding 17.7 people per day to its campaign. In 58 days, it will reach 1,024.6 people to buy the 2,000 Launch Edition vehicles it plans to deliver. That’s only half of the planned production. This may be the best indication of demand the company may be able to provide if it does not manage to speed up the process.
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