Photo: Drive Tesla via Twitter
Tesla has been encountering setbacks in the past months, which made analysts and investors less optimistic about the future. In a note shared by Tesla’s investor relations boss Martin Viecha, we see analysts dismissing Tesla’s future products. The S3XY lineup will also slowly increase production by no more than 500,000 units per year.
No matter how good 2022 was for Tesla, the end of the year brought nothing but disappointment for fans, investors, and customers. Tesla started the year smashing record after record but ended with a fizzle, most probably failing to meet production and sales estimates announced by the company’s CEO Elon Musk earlier that year. Although Musk is aware that Tesla’s usual end-of-quarter pushes are inefficient, Tesla has once again tried to boost sales numbers in the last days of 2022.
This time, the push might not have been as successful as expected. Things were against Tesla’s odds, considering many Model Y and Model 3 customers delayed their purchases or canceled orders to benefit from the IRA tax credit in 2023. This has prompted Tesla to offer similar incentives to buyers of the Model Y and Model 3, who agreed to take delivery of their car by the end of 2022. It wasn’t only that, though, as Tesla offered a similar $7,500 discount to buyers of Model S and Model X, both not qualifying for the IRA tax credits because their MSRP is well above the $55,000 and $80,000 limits, respectively.
With inventories building and incentives not working, we expect Tesla to miss guidance on full-year deliveries. Musk announced that Tesla would produce 1.5 million vehicles in 2022, although this is unlikely. Tesla manufactured 930,000 cars for the first nine months of 2022 and would need to build over 570,000 additional units to meet this goal. The deliveries are even harder to push, and for the first time, it appears that Tesla has a demand problem. Instead of trying to build more cars, the EV maker is now struggling to find enough buyers for its vehicles.
In a note to investors, Tesla VP of Investor Relations Martin Viecha shared the latest company-compiled delivery consensus, showing that 24 analysts think Tesla would deliver around 418,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, the Q4 results still look impressive compared to the 342,422 cars sold in Q3 2022. For the whole of 2022, analysts expect Tesla to report 1.33 million deliveries, which is still far from previous estimates.
Many think that part of the reason for this failure is Tesla’s aging lineup. Viecha’s letter paints a different picture, with new vehicles expected to basically not count in Tesla’s balance sheet for the next three years at least. Tesla is expected to have delivered 11 “other models” in Q4 2022, which we believe were Semi trucks. For 2023, analysts expect 39,150 deliveries for vehicles outside the S3XY lineup, which seems fair considering that Tesla will probably start production of the Cybertruck.
Intriguingly, despite an expected ramp-up for the Cybertruck, which sits on millions of reservations, the analysts don’t expect more than half a million “other vehicles” delivered in 2026. This implies either that Tesla would not be able to produce enough Cybertrucks or the reservation holders would cancel their reservations in droves. Also, the expected launch of a more affordable model that was supposed to surpass Model 3/Y in sales is missing from analysts’ predictions. Either way, 2023 will definitely be an exciting year to watch.
This time, the push might not have been as successful as expected. Things were against Tesla’s odds, considering many Model Y and Model 3 customers delayed their purchases or canceled orders to benefit from the IRA tax credit in 2023. This has prompted Tesla to offer similar incentives to buyers of the Model Y and Model 3, who agreed to take delivery of their car by the end of 2022. It wasn’t only that, though, as Tesla offered a similar $7,500 discount to buyers of Model S and Model X, both not qualifying for the IRA tax credits because their MSRP is well above the $55,000 and $80,000 limits, respectively.
With inventories building and incentives not working, we expect Tesla to miss guidance on full-year deliveries. Musk announced that Tesla would produce 1.5 million vehicles in 2022, although this is unlikely. Tesla manufactured 930,000 cars for the first nine months of 2022 and would need to build over 570,000 additional units to meet this goal. The deliveries are even harder to push, and for the first time, it appears that Tesla has a demand problem. Instead of trying to build more cars, the EV maker is now struggling to find enough buyers for its vehicles.
In a note to investors, Tesla VP of Investor Relations Martin Viecha shared the latest company-compiled delivery consensus, showing that 24 analysts think Tesla would deliver around 418,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, the Q4 results still look impressive compared to the 342,422 cars sold in Q3 2022. For the whole of 2022, analysts expect Tesla to report 1.33 million deliveries, which is still far from previous estimates.
Many think that part of the reason for this failure is Tesla’s aging lineup. Viecha’s letter paints a different picture, with new vehicles expected to basically not count in Tesla’s balance sheet for the next three years at least. Tesla is expected to have delivered 11 “other models” in Q4 2022, which we believe were Semi trucks. For 2023, analysts expect 39,150 deliveries for vehicles outside the S3XY lineup, which seems fair considering that Tesla will probably start production of the Cybertruck.
Intriguingly, despite an expected ramp-up for the Cybertruck, which sits on millions of reservations, the analysts don’t expect more than half a million “other vehicles” delivered in 2026. This implies either that Tesla would not be able to produce enough Cybertrucks or the reservation holders would cancel their reservations in droves. Also, the expected launch of a more affordable model that was supposed to surpass Model 3/Y in sales is missing from analysts’ predictions. Either way, 2023 will definitely be an exciting year to watch.
Tesla's survey with 24 sell-side analysts is out (also known as the company-compiled consensus). Analysts are estimating 417,957 deliveries in Q4 on average. This is a more up-to-date estimate and replaces the old analyst consensus that was a little higher. pic.twitter.com/kMqCCGgJWP
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 30, 2022
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