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2022 Was rEVolutionary: EV Sales Were 5% of the U.S. Market and 10 Million Globally

Elon’s ‘secret master plan’ hit two important milestones in 2022. Firstly, battery-electric vehicles sold in the U.S. passed the critical 5% of the overall new car market. This is half of the theoretical critical mass needed for a product sales curve to suddenly accelerate. Secondly, all the electric vehicles sold in the world passed the 10 million mark. It’s a ‘magic’ milestone as EVs accounted for roughly 15% of all the vehicles sold last year.
2022 plug-in car sales in the U.S. and in the world 6 photos
Photo: Argonne National Laboratory / Tesla
2022 plug-in car sales in the U.S. and in the world2022 plug-in car sales in the U.S. and in the world2022 plug-in car sales in the U.S. and in the world2022 plug-in car sales in the U.S. and in the world2022 plug-in car sales in the U.S. and in the world
In 2022, Americans purchased a record number of electric vehicles. It was the first time that new EV sales passed the 800,000 units milestone. It doesn’t sound impressive like a million would, but according to Kelley Blue Book and Electric Drive Transportation Association, that’s half the number of all EVs sold in the 2011-2021 decade.

All analysts bet on the EV market to easily surpass the one million mark in 2023, as the Inflation Reduction Act is now going full steam. The real question now is how close to the 1.5 million mark will the sales reach at the end of 2023. However mindblowing this may seem.

The U.S. is once again in love with EVs

Compared to 2021, EV sales increase was around 65%. The funny thing is this value also applies to Tesla’s share of the new EV market in 2022, according to Motor Intelligence estimates. You should know that Tesla’s share is down from 72% in 2021, but this is good news because it signals more and more EV models from the other automakers.

Another good news is the EV share of total new car sales has raised from 3.2% in 2021 to 5.8% in 2022. Salespeople are now like “Whoa, man, I wanna know the secret!” But the sad truth is that there’s no secret. The new car market fell 8% in 2022 compared to 2021, due mainly to high prices.

In December 2022, J.D. Power reports, the average price for passenger cars in the U.S. raised to almost $50,000 (€46,800). In part, this was because of EV’s 10% price hike year-over-year. The average price for an EV was estimated at more than $65,000 (€60,800) in 2022 compared to $51,000 (€47,800).

But thanks to IRA incentives, EVs are becoming less expensive. Also, Tesla’s aggressive price cuts will greatly influence the market in the following months, and this will only lead to more EV purchases. Carmakers are struggling to keep up the pace with high demand, and this will fuel the EV sales growth spiral.

EVs will be favored against hybrids

There’s also a side effect of the EV sales surge. According to KBB’s latest Brand Watch report, there’s a growing demand for hybrid vehicles. Almost 25% of new-vehicle shoppers are looking for electrified cars, but 18% are favoring battery hybrids over full-electric.

The main reasons are the affordable prices for hybrids compared to EVs, but also the lack of ‘range anxiety.’ It’s no wonder four of the Top 10 cars considered are Toyota hybrid models. However, the Tesla Model 3 was in third place, while the Ford F-150 Lightning and Chevrolet Bolt also made it to the top.

And the trend will most likely favor EVs in the following months. Argonne National Laboratory’s data shows that more than 80,000 plug-in vehicles were sold in January 2023. That’s an almost 50% increase compared to January 2022. In the same month, hybrids sales were down 6% from January 2022.

Cumulative U.S. plug-in vehicle sales more than doubled from 2000. After more than a decade, their total number is very close to the 3.5 million units mark. It’s just one percent of the almost 300 million vehicles in the nation’s fleet. But it’s a leap from the 0.1 percent from just a couple of years ago.

2022 plug\-in car sales in the U\.S\. and in the world
Photo: Argonne National Laboratory
The bottom line is in the U.S., the light-duty electric-drive new vehicles share is almost 8% of the LDV market. Electrified passenger cars account for more than 11% of the car market. So, now more and more analysts forecast that by 2030 new EV sales will easily exceed 10 million annually.

What about the rest of the world?

According to EV Volumes, in 2022, 10.5 million electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids were sold. This is a 55% increase over 2021 levels. It’s an important step as the global auto market shrank by only 0.5% compared to 2021. Which is more like saying it stayed flat.

Without question, the main problem for the industry is the shortage of raw materials and components that followed the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Different areas in the world evolved at different rates. For instance, in Europe, EVs and PHEVs increased by only 15%, while in China, they surged 82% compared to 2021.

2022 was the first time when vehicles with batteries that can charge from the grid were sold in higher numbers (10.5 million) than non-chargeable battery vehicles (8.4 million). And keep in mind that ‘non-chargeable battery vehicles’ also include mild hybrids, which are basically 95% ICE vehicles.

2022 plug\-in car sales in the U\.S\. and in the world
Photo: EV Sales
By the way, traditional ICE light vehicle global sales were 7% down compared to 2021. Because of this, one in six cars sold in 2022 was an electric car or a plug-in hybrid one. Oh, we should also note that plug-in hybrid sales are slightly less than electric-only. Due to incentives, the market will continue to favor 100% electric vehicles over plug-in hybrids.

Tesla vs the world. Especially the Chinese carmakers

Guess who is the leading EV manufacturer in the world right now? Tesla, by no means. In 2022, it sold more than 1.3 million cars, 40% more than in 2021. In short, in only one year, Tesla sold a third of the 4 million cars it sold over a decade. This is the very definition of successfully ramping up production and sales.

American Tesla surpassed Chinese BYD by more than 300,000 units, although the difference could be more, as BYD raised questions about possible faking sales figures. The third place in the world top is disputed by Volkswagen and General Motors. However, GM’s rise was due in part to its Chinese partner Wuling, who is currently selling one of the most affordable EVs around, the Mini EV.

It’s important to note that Chinese carmakers dominate the EV & PHEV global market. Almost 60% of the world’s EVs & PHEVs were sold in China, while 64% of EVs & PHEVs are made there. In 2022, China exported half a million EVs & PHEVs, and 80% of them were cars bearing western logos, like Tesla, Dacia, Polestar, or BMW.

2022 plug\-in car sales in the U\.S\. and in the world
Photo: Tesla
If by ‘electric car’ you understand both full-electric and plug-in hybrids, then BYD is the leader of 2022, with close to 1.9 million vehicles. That is if the numbers are valid. The Chinese behemoth simply tripled its sales compared to 2021, and it’s the closest to the ‘Tesla-killer’ monicker.

For the rest of the world, it’s simply uncomfortable to know that seven of the ten best-selling plug-in models in 2022 are coming from Chinese carmakers. But electroheads will surely be happy to know that analysts forecast that EV & PHEV sales are expected to reach nearly 17 million units by the end of this year.

Maybe we should ditch moderate forecasting

So, cautious estimates show a 70% increase in 2023 over 2022. By the end of 2023, the total number of plug-in vehicles could reach 40 million units, with three-quarters of them battery-only electric. It’s still a fraction of the global fleet, but it’s much more than many thought possible only two or three years ago.

The near future will still be plagued by the slowing of the global economy. The turmoil of the Russian war on Ukraine, and the Covid-19 issues will still have a negative influence on supply chain disruptions. Despite all of that, all the forecasts show that EV sales will keep rising at a fast pace. And so will their market share.

Thus, the 50% new EV sales scenario by 2030 becomes more and more plausible. The U.S. will most likely be head-to-head with China in the road electrification race. As the competition between both car- and battery makers is a fierce one, we can only expect new breakthroughs in battery tech.

Hold your horses, this decade is going to bring much more disruptive ideas in the car industry than you can possibly imagine. This is not just some wacky assertion. This is based on facts, sales figures, and undeniable trends. Maybe you don’t believe it now, but your next car is most likely to be an electric car.
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About the author: Oraan Marc
Oraan Marc profile photo

After graduating college with an automotive degree, Oraan went for a journalism career. 15 years went by and another switch turned him from a petrolhead into an electrohead, so watch his profile for insight into green tech, EVs of all kinds and alternative propulsion systems.
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